Green Bay Packers
Last year: 8-7-1 record, 1st in division
2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Eagles, Seahawks (SOS: 13th toughest)
Key offseason acquisitions: DE Julius Peppers, S Ha Ha Clinton Dix (via draft)
Key losses: C Evan Dietrich-Smith
As long as QB Aaron Rodgers is at the helm of Green Bay's offense, the Packers will not be a team anyone looks forward to playing. Despite only playing nine games, Rodgers tossed 17 TDs and 2,536 yards and a clip of 67% completion. If you extrapolate those stats, you end up with a 30 TD and over 4,500 yard season. And that's just in the air. Keep in mind that only Cam Newton has more rushing scores at the quarterback position than Rodgers since 2008, and his ability to create plays on the move is unmatched throughout the league. Last season was Rodgers' only one in which he missed more than one game; assuming he can stay on the field as he usually does, the Pack's offense will be a force.
That said, this offense might still be top-half caliber if I were the quarterback, thanks to the excellent skill position players in Green Bay. WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb make up one of the best one-two punches at the position (but incidentally, it's not even the best one in the division--more on that later). The tight end position is muddy in the wake of Jermichael Finley, but top candidate Andrew Quarless is a talented player with some experience catching passes from Rodgers. At running back, 2013 rookie of the year Eddie Lacy punished defenses last year. This was especially true when Rodgers was injured: with his quarterback on the sideline and all the defensive attention on him, Lacy averaged 4.4 yards per carry and scored seven times in seven games.
Even with the departure of Dietrich-Smith and the lack of an obvious go-to center, the offensive line is generally a solid unit. The Packers' line was already fifth best in run-blocking per adjusted line yards, and OT Bryan Bulaga will be back from an ACL tear that kept him out of the 2013 campaign. The line's pass blocking, on the other hand, is something of a cause for concern. Packers QBs were sacked at a pretty high rate, sustaining 45 sacks last year. The analysis appears worse when using adjusted sack rate, which takes things like the opposing defense, intentional grounding penalties, and down situation into account: by this figure, Green Bay had the seventh-worst pass-blocking in the league. Dependence on this line likely won't be a big issue, but it has the potential to threaten Rodgers more often than the Packers would like.
This ties into the second potential issue with the high-powered Pack offense. For all the talent around Rodgers, the success of their game plan is incredibly dependent upon him. Green Bay started 5-2 last year, and, following Rodgers' injury, promptly dropped their next 5 games. Ultimately, the non-Rodgers Packers went 2-5-1, both wins by just one point. If the leaky pass-blocking line lets too many guys through, Rodgers may find himself stranded on the sideline while the Packers offense is stranded on the field.
At this point, this is basically splitting hairs; we're talking about an offense that was tied for eighth in points, sixth in pass yards, seventh in rush yards, and ninth in offensive DVOA. Their real problem was on the other side of the ball, where the Green Bay defense was 25th ranked in points allowed and second-to-last in defensive DVOA. The defensive line is weak and largely relying on BJ Raji and new signee Julius Peppers to live up to their respective name values, a task which neither of which seems super prepared to accomplish. The linebackers other than Clay Matthews (who missed 2013 due to injury) are atrocious. The inability of AJ Hawk and Brad Jones to cover and their even worse run support are unlikely to be fixed by this year's fourth-rounder, Carl Bradford.
The secondary ought to be competent this year: Green Bay has three solid corners in Casey Heyward, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields, while Clinton-Dix out of Alabama is expected to play well at safety with Morgan Burnett, who played poorly due to injury last season. However, the rest of the defense is just too bad to expect much of an improvement on last year's totals, especially with some offenses on the slate that figure to be among the league's best in 2014. Combined with the overall slight changes on offense, it seems as if the Pack are destined for a finish unworthy of Rodgers' talent.
Player to watch: Eddie Lacy. It'll be interesting to see if Lacy can prove that his rookie year was not just a fluke, especially considering his splits with and without Rodgers. When Rodgers was out, Lacy carried 148 times for 7 TDs and 4.4 yards per carry; without him, Lacy had 136 carries for only 4 TDs and 3.9 yards per carry.
2014 projected finish: 9-7, 3rd.
Led Zeppelin lyric: "But now it's time for me to go / The autumn moon lights my way / For now I smell the rain, and with it pain / And it's headed my way." (Ramble On; until this defense is fixed, everyone hop off the bandwagon)
NB: Shortly after posting, DE BJ Raji was ruled out for the year with a torn bicep.
Chicago Bears
Last year: 8-8, 2nd.
2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Cowboys, 49ers (SOS: 15)
Key acquisitions: DE Jared Allen, DE Lamarr Houston, CB Kyle Fuller (via draft)
Key losses: QB Josh McCown, DE Julius Peppers, DE Corey Wootton
The Bears are in line for one of the most drastic franchise image changes in not just NFL history, but in that of all of sports. Long known for powerful, stifling defenses, Chicago's success this year will come from an offensive attack comprised of some of the best skill position players in all of football in its attempt to overcome a painfully bad defense.
I've never loved Jay Cutler as a quarterback: he's never had great decision-making skills and he has a habit of getting himself hurt (he has missed 12 games in past three years, hasn't had a full season since 2009). But last year he posted a career high in the BDR metric, and now arguably has the best combination of receiving threats in the league. Cutler's chemistry with WR Brandon Marshall is well-documented; he's led the league in targets by a considerable margin in the two seasons since he's joined Chicago. But somehow, he didn't lead his own team in wide receiver yards last year. That title belonged to Alshon Jeffery, who truly broke out in his second year in the NFL. Combine these two receivers with a solid TE in Martellus Bennett, a low-risk, high-reward signing in WR Santonio Holmes, an excellent pass-catching running back in Matt Forte, and Cutler seems like he's due for a 5,000-yard season.
The biggest problem for this unit, by far, is going to be dodging injuries. As I previously mentioned, Cutler has had issues staying healthy. Last year, it wasn't a problem, as Josh McCown was able to step in and perform brilliantly in six games. The Bears came within a few seconds of making the playoffs last year in a winner-take-all game against the Packers, and there's no chance they get that close without McCown. Usually losing a backup QB isn't that big an offseason move, but McCown's status as an above-average backup and Cutler's propensity for injury make that a big loss for Chicago.
Forte hasn't been a notable injury risk, but the size of his career and 2013 workloads suggest that he might be in danger. First of all, he turns 29 in December, which is on the older side for running backs. Second, and more strikingly, after years of being the feature back for the Bears, he led the league in RB snaps last year with 887. This means Forte has more wear and tear than the average back his age, and will at least suffer some statistical regression, if not an actual injury.
Standing between the Bears' skill players and time on the bench is the offensive line, which a very difficult group to grasp. They allowed the fourth-fewest sacks of any line last year, but also surrendered 213 total pressures on 630 passing plays. Chicago had one of the best run games in RB yards per carry, but the line itself is ranked 20th in adjusted line yards. One possible reason for this variation is the discrepancy in skill level between the left and right side. The right side is perhaps the biggest question mark on this offense: G Kyle Long was inconsistent in 2013, and OT Jordan Mills had a disappointing rookie season. It seems like this side can be better in 2014, but that's mostly conjecture. The left side, however, was a force last year and figures to stay that way behind G Matt Slauson and OT Jermon Bushrod.
All things considered, this offense is the same versatile group that placed sixth in DVOA last year and has a very high ceiling. Exactly the opposite should be said about the once-fearsome Bears defense; they gave up the third-most yards and the second-most points of any defense in the NFL. Even after losing Peppers and Wootton, the defensive ends are probably the best part of this defense. Allen and Houston are solid acquisitions, and they also acquired some depth in Willie Young and Trevor Scott.
The corners, Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings, are also okay, and first-rounder Kyle Fuller is a big investment from Chicago in the hopes of providing depth at corner or perhaps eventually flexing to the safety position. Every other part of the defense is just no good. Their only semi-solid linebacker is the 34-year-old Lance Briggs, and their best safety is probably MD Jennings. In case you don't know that name, here's a quick player bio: he's not good at football. The improvements on the ends at at cornerback are enough so that the Bears D will be better. But much like their division rival Packers, the offense will face a weekly struggle against their own leaky defense. The difference: the Bears' schedule is slightly easier by virtue of finishing second in 2013, I'd say the Bears' offense is probably slightly better than that of the Packers, and the defense, as bad as it is, is unquestionably better. After just missing out on the division crown due to a transcendent game-ending drive from Aaron Rodgers, look for the Bears to reclaim it in 2014.
Player to watch: Kyle Fuller. If he plays well and can move to safety early on, the secondary suddenly gets much better and might lead to an even better season than expected.
2014 projected finish: 10-6, 1st.
Led Zeppelin lyric: "Got no time to pack my bags, my foots outside the door / Got a date, I can't be late, for the high hopes hailla ball." (The Ocean; as long as Marshall and Jeffery are lining up wide, expect good things from this team)
Detroit Lions
Last year: 7-9, 3rd.
2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Giants, Cardinals (SOS: 16)
Key acquisitions: WR Golden Tate, TE Eric Ebron (via draft), LB Kyle Van Noy (also via draft), S James Ihedigbo
Key losses: DE Willie Young, S Louis Delmas
The story surrounding this team, as per usual, is its failure to live up to expectations. The Lions had a very strong start to the season: 6-3 in their first nine games, the three losses coming to two teams that made the playoffs (Packers, Bengals) and the Cardinals, who finished 10-6. And, of course, the entire team collapsed on itself, losing six of its last seven games, including losses to the lowly Ravens, Giants, and Vikings to finish the campaign. Excluding a 40-point outburst against the hapless Packers in Week 13, the Lions' offense scored 19.5 points per game, a far cry from the 26.4 points they averaged in the first half of the season.
The major issue was the inconsistency of QB Matthew Stafford, who both torched the stingy Bengals defense for 357 yards in Week 7 and threw two TDs against six INTs in the last four games of the season. Aside from majorly disappointing fantasy football players in their playoffs (sorry, fellow Stafford owners), Stafford failed to live up to what seems like an incredible potential, a function of both his raw talent and the fact that he has the best receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson, as a reliable target.
Detroit is hoping that some more weapons besides Johnson might encourage some improvement, and the team made two excellent moves to that end: signing Golden Tate and drafting Eric Ebron. Tate didn't exactly eat planets as the number-one receiver in Seattle, but not many pass catchers would excel given the extremely run-heavy play calling that powered the Seahawks' offense in 2013. He's the most capable receiver they've brought in to complement Johnson, and certainly seems like he'll be an improvement over the likes of Nate Burleson. Ebron, meanwhile, is just a rookie, but should be a part of the offense immediately following Brandon Pettigrew's underwhelming season.
New coach Jim Caldwell has said repeatedly that he wants to emphasize the run this season, which should also be a welcome change for the Lions given Stafford's ridiculous workload of late (attempted third-highest 634 passes in 2013, after setting the single-season record in 2012 with 727). It's also a move that Detroit can easily pull off, as they have two above-average running backs on their roster who can combine for an explosive ground attack. Reggie Bush has battled both injury and ball security problems, but overall was an excellent player for the Lions in 2013, racking up over 1,500 all-purpose yards. His teammate in the backfield, Joique Bell, brings some strength and exceptional pass-catching ability to the offense.
This offense is also anchored by a near-impenetrable line. They surrendered only 23 sacks, the second-best mark in football, and rookie OT Riley Reiff was the only starter that gave up more than one sack the whole season. They're also a deep unit: OT LaAdrian Waddle did not start but exceeded expectations after going undrafted in 2013, and the Lions spent a third-rounder on C Travis Swanson out of Arkansas in case starter Dominic Raiola shows to have lost a step at 36. With Tate, Ebron and Bell's contributions to the passing game, it's of vital importance that Stafford remains protected, and it seems like that will be the case in 2014.
The Lions' defense was good enough to keep the team in games last season, finishing in the middle of the pack in points allowed (15th), yards allowed (16th), and total defensive DVOA (14th). Those figures, however, are a tale of two defenses. Against the run, the Lions were excellent, giving up the sixth-fewest yards on the ground per game as well as finishing second in adjusted line yards, behind only Arizona. Detroit's struggles against the pass were what did them in; it's hard to maintain a lead when teams can run an effective offense in the air. The Lions were in the bottom third of pass defenses in yards per game, as well as fourth-worst in QB sacks. DTs Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley were acceptable in creating pressure on passers, but the ends and linebackers couldn't finish the job. Detroit will be looking to second-year DE Ziggy Ansah and rookie LB Kyle van Noy to bring that missing element to the defense, which is possible but by no means guaranteed.
The bigger issue with the pass defense was the secondary, and the Lions didn't do much to improve in that area. No corner on the roster is frankly worth his salt, and the acquisition of James Ihedigbo against the loss of Louis Delmas is basically an even swap at safety. For noticeable improvement on a very shaky secondary this season, Detroit will need a breakout season from either of their young corners, Darius Slay and Bill Bentley.
The Lions will win very few laughers with the pass defense's inability to keep desperate offenses down, but this is a talented enough team to perform well in 2014.
Player to watch: Ziggy Ansah. He recorded eight sacks in 2013, the most among rookies. If the pass rush is to take a step forward this year, it starts with him.
2014 projected finish: 9-7, 2nd.
Led Zeppelin lyric: "Many have I loved / Many times been bitten / Many times I've gazed along the open road." (Over the Hills and Far Away; this fanbase has been told so many times that this is their year, they know better than anyone how dangerous it is to put too much faith in this team)
Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 5-10-1, 4th.
2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Redskins, Rams (SOS: 21)
Key acquisitions: QB Teddy Bridgewater (via draft), DT Linval Joseph, DE Corey Wootton, CB Captain Munnerlyn
Key losses: RB Toby Gerhart, DT Kevin Williams, DE Jared Allen, a year of Adrian Peterson's legs
All the Minnesota offense really needed was a quarterback. The wide receiving corps is solid, with second-year WR Cordarrelle Patterson looking for a breakout campaign and veteran WR Greg Jennings serving as a "eh, could be worse" second option. The Vikings also brought Norv Turner on as offensive coordinator, which might mean big things for TE Kyle Rudolph: Turner's tight ends have a history of flourishing, most noticeably with Antonio Gates in San Diego and more recently with Jordan Cameron in Cleveland last year. The offensive line isn't so shabby either: they were bottom-10 in sacks allowed, but they were tenth best in run-blocking per adjusted line yards and figure to improve as OT Matt Kalil, who only gave up four sacks in 2013, enters his second year in the pros.
And that's all to say nothing of the most talented running back in the NFL. Adrian Peterson has missed some time in the past couple seasons due to injury as well as reached 2,000 career carries, but Peterson showed after returning from an ACL tear that the rules don't apply to him. He continued his dominance with 5.4 yards per carry in 2013, an unreal total considering opposing defenses' plan began and ended with "stop Adrian Peterson." The terrific run-blocking line only serves to create a more formidable ground game, which finished eighth in rushing yards last year. Slippery change-of-pace back Toby Gerhart has left to start in Jacksonville, but Peterson is more than capable of keeping the run game afloat this year.
To the end of filling that hole at quarterback, the Vikings traded down to draft Teddy Bridgewater out of Louisville with the last pick of the first round, a move that may prove to be an excellent value pick. Bridgewater is talented, has good vision, and looks like a player with a high ceiling and a high floor. At worst, he may turn out to be a league-average starter, which might be all that the Vikings need to eventually be a great offense.
Unfortunately, he's unlikely to reach that level this year. The star rookie QB is a rare commodity in the NFL, and the subpar pass blocking means Bridgewater might endure more hits than he'd like in his first year. With that in mind, Minnesota is likely to work him in under Matt Cassel this year, who's not great by any stretch of the imagination, but really ought to be at least a slim upgrade over the train wreck that Christian Ponder often was.
Unless Bridgewater blows us away this year, this offense will be pretty much the same middling group it was last year, but the future looks somewhat bright.
Things are also looking up for the Vikings' defense, since they really can't get any worse than they were in 2013. They were second-worst in yards allowed and gave up an unthinkable 30 points per game, dead last in the league. Allen and Williams are big losses on the line, but Minnesota did a commendable job of replacing them: Linval Joseph was a serious asset for the Giants, and Corey Wootton does good work in rushing the passer and defending the run.
The biggest problem for the Vikings, by far, was the secondary. Thankfully, they noticed how bad their back four were and did something about it. Simply by virtue of getting S Harrison Smith back from injury, the unit won't be as bad as it was last year. However, they also added Captain Munnerlyn following an impressive season with the Panthers to play across from Xavier Rhodes, the clear highlight of the secondary in his rookie year.
With the improvements on the back end of the defense, the linebacking corps are now the clear weak point. Their first round selection, Anthony Barr, is an unknown quantity but has the raw skills to be very good. The other linebackers, Chad Greenway and Jasper Brinkley, are at least known quantities, but they're known to be bad. Not much can be expected of this group in coverage or in stopping the run, but the Vikings are hoping that at least Barr will help with the pass rush.
While there are still a few more pieces that need to be put into place in Minnesota, time is really of the essence. Next season will bring the feared age-30 season for Peterson, and the Vikings will try to ride him to the playoffs. To that end, it's possible Bridgewater gets something of a trial by fire this year in the hope that he can help the team seriously contend in 2015.
Player to watch: Cordarrelle Patterson. No matter who the QB is in Minnesota, the team will depend on him to be a number-one WR, and his raw skills suggest he's very capable of meeting such expectations. If he succeeds, it'll be a big help for Bridgewater in his rookie year.
2014 projected finish: 5-11, 4th.
Led Zeppelin lyric: "As the moon and the stars call the order / Inside my tides dance the ebb and sway / The sun in my soul's sinking lower / While the hope in my hands turns to clay." (Hots On For Nowhere; a poignantly relevant metaphor for how poor Adrian Peterson must feel about spending his prime in Minnesota)
My pick for the NFL's MVP in 2014 plays in our next division on Get the Led Out, the NFC South. 'Til next time.
