2014 NBA Draft: High Hopes

Thursday night's draft, purported to be the best and deepest in years, generated so much hype that the teaser aired just before the first pick was about "the hype" and how the players are more than the hype. (We'll get back to this commercial later). This past NFL draft was similar; there was a lot of talent condensed at the top, and no one really knew which way it was all going to break. All the speculation and theorizing about the eventual draft order, the debate over the true best prospect, and the questions surrounding whether the Cavs were just going to Cleveland things up again like they did in 2013 essentially went straight into the trash as we watched a largely predictable draft, save for just a few spots.

While I doubt this draft will live up to the standard set in 2003, will likely go down as one of the most important drafts in recent memory. It is the sports fan's duty, then, to come up with his own evaluation of the picks, so that, at least once, when a early pick is a bust or a late pick is an All-Star, he can say the all-important words, "called it." Let's take a look at the first round, pick-by-pick:

1. CLE--SG Andrew Wiggins, Kansas

Brazil was a popular choice to win the 2014 World Cup; they're a great team, and they're the host country. (Stick with me on this analogy here.) But that's too obvious for some people. So they come up with their own theories about who will win. How about reigning champ Spain? Stomped 5-1 by the Dutch. Okay, how about the Netherlands? Squeaking by Australia doesn't look like a championship move, nor does Argentina needing more than 90 minutes to score against Iran (and all non-Messi players even more than that). Portugal? Shellacked by Germany. Germany? Only beat the 'Muricans by one (Fuck yeah). Eventually, everyone just realized that Brazil was the right pick all along. (Note to future readers: disregard this entire metaphor if Brazil doesn't win the Cup. They almost blew it against Chile, after all)

Wiggins is Brazil. Before the season started, teams like the Sixers, the Bucks, and the Suns (how wrong we were about them) were all said to be "Riggin' for Wiggins." Then, as Parker, Randle, and Embiid emerged as potential top picks, writers and reporters came up with far less catchy phrases to describe the action of tanking for that player. We were deluding ourselves. This guy was going first overall.

The chatter is that he's not as NBA-ready as Parker or Embiid, but that he has a much higher ceiling than either one. However, if his vertical is any indication, he's pretty good at reaching ceilings.

In all seriousness, Wiggins is disgustingly good at basketball, and he's a far better fit for the Cavs than Parker. But does he fit better than Embiid? The answer is easy: no, probably not. If you're a team that's absorbing the contract of Andrew I-don't-even-like-basketball-that-much Bynum, you're desperate for an inside presence. That was the Cavs' biggest need going into this draft. And as long as they were willing to take chances like they did with Bynum, there is no reason not to go after Embiid. He will almost certainly miss next season, of course, but strength that he brings to the game is unmatched in this draft and likely the next one, and they missed their best chance to really diversify their team on both sides of the floor.

The best move for Cleveland, undoubtedly, would have been to trade with Philadelphia. Philly loved Wiggins more than most, and would trade down to the first pick for the right price. Considering the Sixers had the 10th overall pick as well as 5 in the second round, I'm confident the two teams could have figured it out. The Sixers would get the guy they wanted while the Cavs get their best fit and maybe a couple more assets that send them back into the playoffs within the next two years (as an eight seed to lose to LeBron's Heat, but it's the principle that counts).

But that didn't happen; the Cavs stayed put, and Embiid was not a first overall kind of pick. With all that considered, it seems like, for the first time in a while, Cleveland did something right.

2. MIL--SF Jabari Parker, Duke

A matchup made in heaven. Parker is the most mature and NBA-ready of any member of this draft class that will play in a game next year, something of great importance to a pretty awful team like the Bucks. Parker wanted to play close to his home in Chicago, and a team that plays in Milwaukee is desperate to find someone that actually wants to play there (and probably a little confused when they do find someone). Even in the depressing Eastern Conference, Parker doesn't make the Bucks instant contenders. But Milwaukee has found a franchise player, around whom they can build a solid team.

3. PHI--C Joel Embiid, Kansas

Poor Philly fans. One year after they drafted Nerlens Noel, a lauded big man with an injury that sidelined him for a season, the Sixers drafted a lauded big man with an injury that will sideline him for a season. I've never been a fan of a team that was in this extreme of a rebuilding stage, but I imagine Embiid's reaction is similar to that of most Philly fans:

(Apparently Embiid actually was excited upon being drafted, and his indifference/anger was an illusion caused by a tape delay. Believe what you need to believe.)

In a league where rim protection is becoming increasingly hard to find, Philadelphia has set themselves up to potentially have one of the scariest young frontcourts in recent memory...in two years. And we still don't know how Noel will play, let alone Embiid. If they both pan out, and they are monsters under the basket with rookie of the year by default MCW taking it up the court, they are a good team all of a sudden. But for now, their team is incomplete by design, and it's another year of losing on purpose. 

4. ORL--PF Aaron Gordon, Arizona

I love Gordon, and I think his style of play will get him far in his NBA career. He's likely not a franchise player or consistent All-Star caliber, but he can defend with the best of them, even if he isn't, putting it nicely, the most prolific shooter. Unfortunately, this is one of many picks in the first round that doesn't schematically make sense. Orlando, before the draft started, traded away their most credible offensive threat in Aaron Afflalo. Looking at this roster, it's very unclear where the shooting is coming from. The Magic are now a very defense-oriented team with only Nikola Vucevic as a dependable option on the other end of the floor. Even in the East, I'm not the least bit scared of them. See you next year!

5. UTA--SG Dante Exum, Let's Go Outback Tonight

Exum is the Steve Kerr of this draft. He's proved himself competent in a capacity similar (sort of) to playing in the NBA, and he's done so to an extent that everyone wants him on their team. And yet, it remains to be seen how he'll do on the big stage. The major difference is the pressure placed on them. Kerr is already in a great situation, coaching a well-constructed team that made the playoffs last year in perhaps the best Western Conference in history. The pressure on him is to basically not to screw things up royally. Exum, on the other hand, is only 18 and expected to be "the guy" for the Jazz (sorry Trey Burke). He has unreal upside, and he already has the talent and size to make an impact for this team. But asking him to be the franchise is a lot of pressure on a young guy who hasn't even played in this country.

6. BOS--PG Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State

Look, I really like Smart. I think he's a good player, and that he'll develop into a more-than-capable point and be a real asset to his team. And I wanted the pick to be an appropriate one so that we could all go crazy with the "smart" puns. But...I just can't. As the Celtics stand right now, this pick doesn't really make sense. Unless they're shopping Rondo, which they haven't shown much sign of, Boston will be playing with two guards that really just play the point. Apparently the Celtics think they can play them both, but I honestly just don't see it. Nor do I see a lot of teams that are willing to absorb the $11 million that Rondo is due in this last year of his extension. If I'm a Celtics fan, I'm left wishing they took a surer bet and a better fit than Smart, like any of the next three picks.

Plus, if Smart is a guy that gets involved with fans sometimes because they're assholes, 41 games in Boston is not the solution. 

7. LAL--PF Julius Randle, Kentucky

We'll look back on this draft in ten years and declare this pick a steal for the Lakers. Randle is not just a talented and physical big, he's a grown-ass man.

Fig. 1: A grown-ass man.

He's got just as much raw talent as Parker, and his aggression and motivation in the paint suggest a Wiggins-like upside. Los Angeles is a place where Randle can realize his upside, since he isn't under immense and immediate pressure to contribute and be the star; Kobe, Pau, and Nash are all similar candidates for that role following their 2013-2014 campaigns. If Randle can live up to his potential, he can easily be the face of the young incarnation of the Lakers (which, if you're a Laker fan, is far more palpable than Nick Young, aka Swaggy P, filling that role).

8. SAC--SG Nik Stauskas, Michigan

Like Gordon, this pick is a disheartening misuse of a great player that belongs elsewhere. He's an excellent shooter, perhaps the best in this draft, but that's not even close to the Kings' first need. They gave up 106.3 points per 100 possessions last season, so they really needed some defense. Plus, they drafted Ben McLemore out of Kansas last year to play where Stauskas will play. In fact, Vonleh (who went next to Charlotte) would have been an excellent fit. McLemore would be given another year to fill his role, while Vonleh's defensive prowess and generally good shooting improves greatly upon Jason Thompson's play at power forward. Elfrid Payton would also fill the need at point guard while bringing some defense to the team. The fact that they didn't suggests the Celtics might see Sacramento as a landing spot for Rondo if they're shedding his contract, but the Kings are already over the cap and will likely try to avoid paying a veteran $11 million for one year. On the other end of the pick is Stauskas himself, who will find his talents severely underutilized in an offense that doesn't move the ball enough to render him an effective player. Sigh.

9. CHA--PF Noah Vonleh, Indiana

So instead of a great fit in Stauskas, Charlotte just went for the best player available, and I think might have done the best thing for their team. Regardless of the fact that they play in the East, the fact that they made the playoffs means there must be something to this team, and Vonleh might be the missing piece. He's an excellent athlete and one of the better two-way players with some upside potential, and he does what Cody Zeller does far better than Cody Zeller. You play some combination of him, Al Jefferson, and Bismack Biyombo underneath the basket with Kemba Walker and a developing Kidd-Gilchrist on the court? You've got the beginnings of a formidable basketball team. One of the better early picks of the first round, for sure.

10. ORL (from PHI)--PG Elfrid Payton, Louisiana-Lafayette

Similar to Gordon, Payton is an excellent defender with no jump shot to speak of. He and Oladipo are a very good young backcourt defensively, but the lack of scoring suggests the Magic in for a season with a lot of 90-85 losses.

11. CHI (from DEN)--SF Doug McDermott, Creighton

You'd be hard pressed to find a team that filled a gaping hole as well as Chicago did. The Bulls defense was positively suffocating, allowing just 97.8 points per 100 possessions, second-best in the league behind Indiana. But their offensive efficiency of 99.7 points per 100 possessions (on par with the Jordan-Crawford-Jeff-Green-Avery-Bradley-Kris-Humpries-Gerald-Wallace Celtics) meant every game was a grinding fight to win. McDermott might mean a slight decrease in defensive efficiency, but he's arguably the best scorer in the draft, and the only other candidate that's even close went to Sacramento. Scoring was exactly what the Bulls need, and Dougie Fresh is more than enough to keep the Bulls very competitive in 2014-2015.

12. PHI (from ORL)--PF Dario Saric, Croatia

A good fit, will add a new dimension to Philly's offense...in three years, when he's eligible to play in the NBA.

13. MIN--PG Zach LaVine, UCLA

Well, this just says it all. He's a very good athlete with better shooting ability than the two point guards who went before him (Smart and Payton), but it's Minnesota. He may not care enough, with or without Kevin Love, to be all he can be. On the other hand, he might play out of his mind to have a good resume to show when he hits free agency. Either way...that Vine still exists.

14. PHO--SF TJ Warren, NC State

The Suns were almost the best story of the year. Basically everyone said that they were not only tanking, but that they were built to tank. Then, they accidentally won some games and found themselves in contention for a playoff spot in the most competitive conference in history. And they were fun to watch, with guys like Dragic, Okafor, and Bledsoe spreading the floor. Seriously, is there anyone not from Memphis that wanted the Grizzlies in the playoffs over the Suns?

Alas, the 2013-2014 Suns will just be remembered as one of the best teams that didn't make the playoffs. In this draft, they needed guys who could make an immediate impact for the last push into the postseason. In Warren, they found one of their guys. Warren is a pretty good athlete with a very high basketball IQ, almost singlehandedly taking NC State to the Big Dance. Phoenix, however, wants him for his scoring from the small forward position, easily the biggest hole in their team. Outside of McDermott and Parker, both of whom would certainly be gone by this point, Warren is the best fit of this criterion. Excellent pick for the Suns: Warren has the skills to take them to the playoffs this year, and the feel for the game to keep his value far beyond 2014.

15. ATL--PF Adreian Payne, Michigan State

Payne was a huge asset to Sparty playing down low, bringing both strength and floor space to the position. Since he wanted to play for Tom Izzo as long as possible (and really, who wouldn't), he's one of the oldest players in the draft, so Atlanta is hoping he can contribute now. Realistically though, I'm not sure where they play him. The Hawks already like Antic and Millsap down low, and they're hoping Horford returns from his injury last season ready to play. Regardless, they see the weakness of the East and a good chance to return to the playoffs, and Payne's talent is a good value here to help them realize that goal.

16. DEN (from CHI)--C Jusuf Nurkic, Croatia

I know I was just singing Phoenix's praises, but, wow, is Denver multi-dimensional now. Nurkic is one of the best centers of the draft and a general monster. Rotating him underneath with Kenneth Faried and Javale McGee gives Denver real strength down low. Meanwhile, they just traded for Aaron Afflalo, a veteran scorer that really has no parallel on this Nuggets team.

17. BOS--SG James Young, Kentucky

I don't understand the Smart pick at 6, but for this one I at least get what the Celtics were thinking. It's still not a good pick.

Shooting guard was the biggest roster hole, since Boston was basically just flexing Avery Bradley, who's closer to a forward. But the best thing you can say about Young is his potential as a shooter, which is what I guess what the Celtics are going for. Two problems: (1) the Celts don't have enough of a supporting cast to let that potential grow, and (2) the shooting they're looking for in Young is basically already present in Rodney Hood, who was still on the board here.

And of course, we all know who's gonna get blamed when the Celtics lose 50 games again.

So long Brad, we hardly knew ya.

18. PHO--PG Tyler Ennis, Syracuse

Ennis is not only an above-average backup to Eric Bledsoe (something Phoenix really needed), but he's also the coolest motherfucker in this entire draft class.

19. DEN (from CHI)--SG Gary Harris, Michigan State

A small but talented two-way player that will be able to develop under Afflalo and a very solid cast of players on the Nuggets.

Can't we please just move a handful of these teams to the East?

20. TOR--SF Bruno Caboclo, Brazil

As if the Lint Rollers weren't already one of the most interesting teams in the league.

If you're like me, and you didn't even know who this guy was before the draft, here are the three key pointers:

1. He was the MVP of Basketball without Borders, which I'm very glad to say is a real thing.
2. He's being hailed as the "Brazilian Kevin Durant."
3. ESPN's Fran Fraschilla, expert on international basketball players, said Caboclo is "so raw that he's about three or four years away from playing in the league."

Beware the Raptors.

21. OKC--PF Mitch McGary, Michigan

Value-wise, this is a very good pick. McGary is another athletic shooter from Michigan, and may prove himself to have been worth a top-20 pick. Fit-wise, the pick is okay. This pick probably means Collison is out the door, so the Thunder will have some youth at that position. That said, McGary's rebounding talents could be better used by someone else, since the Thunder possessed the league-leading 52.2 rebounding rate last year, and the Thunder themselves are in need of a guard who can diversify the offense.

22. MEM--SG Jordan Adams, UCLA

I would've taken Rodney Hood at this position, simply because he's a far better athlete than Adams is. The pick still fills the biggest need on the Memphis roster at shooting guard, and Adams is a far better rebounder than Hood or Hairston, the other shooting guard that might have gone here--another good tool for a Grizzlies team that tied with Indiana for the third best rebounding rate in the league.

23. UTA--SG Rodney Hood, Duke

Hood is an excellent complement to any offense due to his ability to get open and shoot from both midrange and downtown. Unfortunately for Hood, the Jazz had the 25th-ranked offensive efficiency last season, meaning there's not much offense to complement. As much as Utah is relying on Exum, they're really going to lean on Hood to score for them, a task for which he may not be prepared. Then again, he played second fiddle beautifully last year alongside Jabari Parker at Duke.

It's an interesting pick, though likely not one that will have immediate payoffs.

24. MIA (from CHA)--PG Shabazz Napier, Connecticut

Mission: Keep LeBron in South Beach at All Costs is a go!

Seriously, the Heat probably did make the right call, regardless of James' personal preference. The Spurs' dismantling of Miami in the Finals exposed the team's lack of depth at basically every position, but the point was the most evident hole. Since Chalmers forgot how to play basketball, the Heat were basically left with two options: play Norris Cole, or don't play a point guard. For the Heat, who like to play very small, that's Sophie's choice. So they took probably the best and certainly the most driven point guard left on the board in Napier. It's just an added bonus that LeBron has one more reason to stay with Miami next season.

25. HOU--PF Clint Capela, France

An athletic player that's likely staying in France to develop for a year. They're already stacked at forward with Parsons and Howard often moving out of the center, so I'm not sure where they think he's going eventually. Doesn't matter; more cap room for Melo!

26. CHA (from MIA)--SG PJ Hairston, Texas Legends (D-League)

Another good pick for Charlotte. The Bobcats Horncats Bobnets Hornets really needed a guard who can score, since a banner night for Kemba Walker means about 40% shooting from the floor. Hairston is also a guy who (a) played in the D-League, which is arguably better preparation for the NBA than college, and (b) would almost certainly have been a lottery pick if he didn't decide that accepting a luxury rental car linked to a felon nicknamed "Fats" was a bulletproof idea (just one more chapter in the wildly entertaining story of UNC athletes and NCAA violations).  Charlotte has really gotten a big infusion of young, promising talent, and are a good bet to rise through the ranks of the East over the next few years.

27. PHO--SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia

Whether he'll play in the NBA at all, let alone for the Suns in the near future is somewhat in question, so it's tough to say what kind of impact he'll have on this team. But I will say that, with his name, I was expecting far more impressive eyebrows.

28. LAC--SG CJ Wilcox, Washington

Wilcox is another older member of this class at 23, so the Clippers will be looking for him to bring his scoring ability to the table right away. Realistically, JJ Redick seems to be very capable in this exact role, so I'm not sure how much of the court Wilcox will see this season.

29. OKC--SF Josh Huestis, Stanford

As a small forward in OKC, Huestis is destined to ride the bench for long stretches of time. However, when he does play, he'll certainly help contribute on defense with his tough play and rebounding skills.

30. SA--PF Kyle Anderson, UCLA

A fairly good rebounder and shooter under the tutelage of Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, and Gregg Popovich? The rich get richer. Love this pick.

The worst part of this draft is two of the teams that weren't in it. Portland had no picks, and New Orleans had only the 47th, which they used on Russ Smith. Both the Trail Blazers and the Pelicans are teams that feel like they are one or two seasons away from coming into their own, and their inability to fill their holes via the draft is a big loss.

Anthony Davis, we're all praying for you.

2014 NBA Finals, Game 4: Home Away from Home

I wrote in my Game 3 review that, although the Spurs led the Heat for most of the game by double digits, it never truly felt like Miami was finished until there were two or three minutes left and Greg Oden checked in. The Heat are a dynamic and just plain great team, and they rarely count themselves out of games, so the Heat's opponents' lead often does not feel safe. That spirit extends to coming back from playoff losses: Miami had not lost back-to-back playoff games in two calendar years, which is a good way to get yourself two titles. This, I think, led the basketball fan to one conclusion going into Game 4: the Heat should win, since they're at home and coming back from a loss. And even if they don't, they'll make the Spurs earn it going against a very talented and very motivated team.

No one counted on the Monstars stealing the basketball skills of every single Heat player not named LeBron James in preparation for their own game against the Tune Squad (technically, the Nerdlucks steal skills and become the Monstars, but that's really not important). Bosh looked at times in the first half like he was in for a vintage Bosh game, making some driving layups that attracted most of the Spurs D to no avail. Ray Allen was himself, hitting shots from the arc and nowhere else (I'm convinced he's getting to the point where if the basket is any more or less than 25 feet away, he has no idea how much strength to put on the shot). Every other Heat player at every other time of the game looked lost. Lewis finished with two, and Wade got outscored by James Jones. On the other end, the Spurs weren't shooting at ludicrous levels like they were in Game 3, but the defense simply couldn't keep up with the movement. By the fourth quarter, Spoelstra was trying anything to stop the San Antonio's offense. Consider this bizarre two-PG lineup that logged serious minutes towards the end of the game: Cole, Haslem, Bosh, Wade, Chalmers. Miami went super-small against the Spurs in an effort to change the style of play. That said, the San Antonio big men weren't exactly relying on their size to contribute, especially in Diaw's case. He only finished with eight points, but he also assisted on nine baskets leading to 22 Spurs points, including this absolute behind-the-back beauty to Splitter:

Diaw was one of the more valuable cogs in the Spurs' machine-like offense in Game 4, but he was just that: a cog. Part of the problem that the Heat D faced was that San Antonio essentially played out the platonic ideal of their basketball philosophy. Every one of Pop's boys was on his game. Nine Spurs scored in the first quarter, and they had an astounding 25 possessions with at least 6 passes during the first half. The incredible movement and equally incredible even distribution created serious headaches for defenders, and the Spurs subsequently shot 55.6% from the field.

Obviously, the Spurs deserve some credit for this convincing win, their biggest of the series in which they're outscoring their opponent by 53 total points. But their opponent is not the Miami Heat that made their fourth consecutive NBA Finals looking for their third straight title. This is a Miami Heat that is dazed, confused, and apparently ready to admit that they have no answer. James was as much of a crutch as he's ever been, scoring 19 of Miami's 21 third quarter points (Rio Chalmers, of all people, had the other two). As a result, as many as four minutes passed between Heat FGs, during which time San Antonio had no problem expanding on their lead. At halftime, the Heat were shooting just over a painful 35%, a far cry from the 56% shooting Miami had in the first half of Game 3. In that game, the Heat gave the impression that they might catch up, because the Spurs' 75% shooting was unsustainable, and the Heat were actually playing very well, and might just have to keep doing what they were doing (at least on offense) to win. In Game 4, they were just plain bad.

And the fans sure let them know. The defining moment of the game was a Patty Mills trey that bounced high off the rim, allowing KAWHI to leap over Bosh and slam it back, giving San Antonio a 22-point lead.

In a home Finals game, the Heat fans booed their own team!! They suck!! 

This is the game's defining moment for a few reasons. First, the ball movement on this play is stellar. The Heat always seem to forget someone, and they frantically rush to cover him as something opens somewhere else. Duncan is a constant target down low from the pick and roll onward, but they prefer to keep the defense on their toes by swinging it cross-court to Parker. Parker, with excellent vision, drives and knows for a fact that Chalmers will collapse and leave Mills in the corner. Every Heat player realizes the mistake too late, and basically lets out a collective "fuck it" as he prepares to shoot. Mills misses, but the play is there, and its end in a Heat team-wide "fuck it" is a major trend throughout Game 4. Second, James tries to take the game into his own hands and go coast to coast, but he's slowed by KAWHI and Parker's defense, knowing full well that he is far and away the most credible threat that Miami presents (and perhaps, at this point, the only credible threat they present). Third, the Heat fans boo their own team! What kind of people are they? They are at once representing and contributing to the general malaise that surrounds this team, one that only threatens to get worse as the reality of how overmatched the Heat are is accepted as gospel in South Beach.

The next game is in San Antonio, but the environment wouldn't be much different if the league hadn't switched away from the 2-3-2 format: both Miami and San Antonio feel like the Spurs' home court at this point. No matter what colors the fans in the seats are wearing, they share the conviction that Game 5 will end with silver and black confetti falling around the Larry O'Brien trophy.

Well That Just Happened: World Cup Day 2

Mexico vs. Cameroon

So El Tri looked as sharp as they've been in months if not years, making most viewers forget about #DOSACERO and how St. Graham Zusi put Mexico into the World Cup in the first place.

Throughout the game Cameroon looked outmatched and El Tri was called offside on two occasions wiping two should be goals off the board in what would have made this game a 3-0 shutout. Mexico's passes were clean and they swarmed all over the field, playing aggressive defense. Mexico no longer looks like mere pushovers that would be bullied out of the group. They still aren't out of the clear just yet with games against the Neymar-lead Brazilians and the Croats, and their goal differential certainly won't make advancing any easier. El Tri really helped their cause with this win today and could possibly advance to the round of 16 unlike their American CONCACAF counterparts (unless Kyle is right).

Spain vs Robin Van Persie and Arjen Robben

La Roja simply looked outmatched. It was boys vs. men and the Spanish looked defeated from the second the Dutch scored. RVP channeled his inner dolphin/swan/mystical being and nailed a header to put the Oranje back in the game.

I BELIEVE I CAN FLY

The Oranje put on a clinic from that point forward making Spain's #1 ranking look stupid and Iker Casillas look like Eli Manning:

OH GOD NO

The real interesting point of this game was that Spain's goal differential is now -4 meaning that anything less than two wins from this point forward will put La Roja's chances of advancing to the Round of 16 into serious jeopardy. Spain's patented Tiki-Taka looked silly as the Dutch cut off many of the short passes that the Spanish use to suffocate their opponents due to sheer time of possession. In all the Dutch played a simply sublime game that showed off their silky skills. In the words of ESPN "Spain didn't just get a bloody nose, they got a full-body bludgeoning in terms of pride and result. 

Kyle and His Relevant Gifs' Shameless World Cup Preview Part 4

Group G:
Germany:
Qualified: By winning their UEFA group C and going undefeated 9-1-0 with a +26 goal differential.  If you think that's impressive, then get this, Germany's all-time record in World Cup qualifiers is 64-18-2.  Only 2 losses in 84 matches; needless to say they are a very successful team.  
Previous Best:  Winners(1954, 1974, 1990)
2010 World Cup Result:  Third Place
Odds to Win: 6/1

Fan Mindset:
Although Italy have won more World Cups than them, (4 to 3), it would not be a stretch to say Germany have the highest standards of any European nation at the World Cup year in and year out.  Germany have made 17 of 19 World Cups, 7 finals, 12 semifinals, and 16 quarterfinals.  They have only not made the quarterfinals once!  (1938)  So, Germany joins Argentina and Brazil is the exclusive "win or failure" club in my opinion.  In recent years we've seen German teams do very well in club and international competitions, and the younger team that got 3rd in 2010 is now in its prime.  The only thing better than third is the final or the win, which is what they'll certainly be aiming for.  

The Team:
With a team this talented, good players will inevitably be left off the starting XI and used in a fill-in late game role, which only adds to Germany's strength and depth.  Coach Joachim Low will certainly have his hands full determining who starts.  Let's start with an easy one.  The starting goalkeeper will certainly be the world's best goalkeeper (imho) Manuel Neuer.  Backing him up on defense will likely be Per Mertesacker and Philipp Lahm.  At midfield, things start to go crazy.  Someone world class will have to sit, just due to the sheer numbers.  Or perhaps Germany can run the rarely attempted 2-7-2 strategy.  They can't score if they don't get past midfield!  Schweinsteiger and Khedira will likely start, but in reserve Germany has Toni Kroos, Mesut Ozil, and Mario Gotze too, damn.  On the attack, the Germans will miss the injured Marco Reus, but they certainly have the pieces to replace his goals.  Thomas Muller, Lukas Podolski, and Miroslav Klose round out a dangerous Deutschland side.  I know I've used the "Europe in South America = bad" argument a lot so far, but this team travels quite well and should never be underestimated.  No one on the 23 man roster comes from outside the top 4 leagues in Europe (Spain, Italy, Germany, and England), again, hot damn.  Low himself is a pretty unique case.  Most international managers only stick around for 1 World Cup cycle, 2 at the most.  This is now Low's third cycle and his 11th year on the team, and he has watched these players from the very start and is excellent at what he does. 

X Factor:
Positioning.  Is there such a thing as too much talent at one spot?  Germany may come close.  With all the spots they have for talented crafty midfielders in their lineup, they all do not have set midfield positions.  Depending on the opponent or situation, it is likely Coach Low will make the sure the appropriate lineup is out there for the Germans, but constant lineup switching and restructuring players' roles can get tiring and confusing at times, even for the world's best.  Still, even with Germany heading the "group of death" and facing tough competition, anything less than 9/9 points and a deep run will be quite surprising.

Prediction:
Germany has made three straight semifinals, and that run will go on.  The quest for a fourth title, however, will have to wait...
Relevant Gif:  Germany in World Cup Qualifiers.

 

United States:

Qualified: First in the CONCACAF Hexagonal over Mexico, Honduras, and Costa Rica going an impressive 7-1-2.  Highlights of the qualifying run include the 1-0 blizzard game vs. Costa Rica and a 0-0 draw against Mexico to earn only the 2nd point ever at the imposing Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

Previous Best: 3rd Place (1930)

2010 World Cup Result: Round of 16

Odds to Win:  250/1

Fan Mindset:

The United States has been on a roller coaster since Landon Donovan's electric stoppage time goal against Algeria sent them to the knockout rounds.  It has seen the US lose in the 2011 Gold Cup, getting Bob Bradley fired, but it has seen the hiring of the Jürgen Klinsmann and a revolution in US soccer.  Then came the bad:  a poor start to qualifying, apparent player disdain, and Landon Donovan's sabbatical.  Then came the good.  A long winning streak, a run of qualifier success, and a well-run system that looked to leave the Bradley system far behind.  Then, it all came crashing back to Earth.  The US was placed in the group of death at the World Cup.  Germany, Portugal, and their nemesis Ghana await them.  Fans seem split.  Some are drinking the kool-aid and saying I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN!  Others are preaching gloom and doom and a Cup of disaster.  Whatever the result, the US is a better team than the one that competed in 2010, but in a much worse group.  Is that a good thing, or bad?  

The Team:

No USA breakdown can start without mentioning the absence of Captain America a.k.a. Landon Donovan. Donovan is not just the savior of the US at the 2010 World Cup, he is also the best player in US international history.  He's not on the squad.  The sabbatical, his out of form play, and maybe even the prospect of the quick footed teams in Group G have led Klinsmann to omit Donovan from the roster.  With that, the USA's success or failure will reflect on this decision.  Is it possible that Donovan is still the most important person on the roster, when he's not even on the squad?  It seems that way based on the discussions over the last month about the squad.  Beyond Donovan, the USA is again anchored by Everton's Tim Howard in goal, with defenders DeMarcus Beasley and Fabian Johnson trying to protect the USA from three good attacking squads.  At midfield, is in my opinion the USA's best player, Michael Bradley.  Yes the son of the coach that got fired is now Klinsmann's best player.  Should make for some interesting dinner conversation.  Bradley's runs at midfield set up the USA's best chances by far.  At forward, Dempsey and Altidore are the USA's best scoring threats.  They both have Premier League experience, but Dempsey left Tottenham for Seattle (???) and Altidore's season at Sunderland was abysmal.  They need to rebound quickly if the USA is to advance.  

X-Factor:  

Jozy Altidore.  His season at Sunderland, awful.  He actually became the punchline of jokes.  Never a good sign.  However, I would group him into the category of players who instantly become better when they put on a national team jersey.  Altidore scored more goals in a friendly against Bosnia (3) this year than he did in 30 appearances at Sunderland (1).  If he can get going, the USA stands a fighter's chance, if he fails than maybe Klinsmann should put in those young players he chose and reload for 2018 in Russia.  

Disclaimer:  The following prediction is based solely on America, patriotism, diet soda, fast food, America, freedom, bald eagles, fireworks, those motorized fat people carts you see at supermarket entrances, pickup trucks, songs about pickup trucks, and America.  Not on fancy shmancy things like statistics or reasoning.  It also in no way reflects my inner sanity or the opinions of anyone around me with a sound mind.  

Prediction:  2nd Place in Group G.  Not sure how on this Earth it will happen, but I've drank the kool-aid and there is no going back.  

Relevant Gif: Every American if the United States beats the group of death and gets to the knockout rounds.

Ghana:

Qualified:  By winning their CAF Group and going 5-0-1.  They then won their playoff against a strong Egyptian side 7-3 on aggregate.  

Previous Best:  Quarterfinals (2010)

2010 World Cup Result:  Quarterfinals

Odds to Win:  200/1

Fan Mindset:  

If the Ivory Coast have the worst luck and fall just short, than Ghana must make them furious.  A combination of fantastic play and great tournament results have placed Ghana at the precipice of African football.  The Egyptian team they crushed in the playoffs was one of Africa's best and went 6-0-0 in qualifying before losing 6-1 in Ghana.  Ghana is in a strange spot come this World Cup.  Their talented roster and rivalry with the USA looks to give a third knockout punch to the Americans, but a spot in the Group of Death is never something to scoff at.  Even the top of African football will need to be on point to try and upset Germany and Portugal.  However, the Ghanaian fans will not be pleased to lose in the group stages, even in one as tough as this.  

The Team:

Though they are an African side, this team features a plethora of talent, many of which are on Champions League sides.  If your team members are playing in the world's best club competition, then it is perfect for assembling a squad for the biggest international competition in the world.  Ghana's defense has its flaws, but their midfield is extremely solid.  They have AC Milan's Michael Essien, Schalke's Kevin-Prince Boateng, Kevin-Prince Boateng's hair, and Kwadwo Asamoah of Juventus.  At forward, they have their goalscoring threats of captain Asamoah Gyan, Jordan Ayew, and Majeed Waris.  The squad is led by Coach James Appiah.  When he was appointed in 2012, Appiah said he was the underdog, something very important to the Ghana side.  

X-Factor:

Being the underdog.  In Brazil's heat, humidity, and crazy stadium environments, mindset can be everything. For Ghana, they cannot let their recent successes and rise to prominence rewrite their role.  They must retain their underdog status because they are in the Group of Death.  If you start thinking you are the class of Africa and a lock to advance, you'll get a rude awakening by Germany, Portugal, and a US team hungry for revenge.  Their squad is talented, but they must stay focused.  

Prediction:  3rd in Group G.  For my crazy USA prediction and an even crazier prediction later to come true, I need Ghana to finish 3rd.  I think they may get a win somewhere, but in the group of death a 1-1-1 record may still send you home.  

Relevant Gif:  Ghana if they fall in the groups after being a penalty away from the semifinals in 2010.  

Portugal:

Qualified:  Via the UEFA playoffs after finishing as runners-up in Group F to Russia.  In the playoffs they beat Sweden in an incredible Ronaldo vs.  Ibrahimovic display that saw Portugal win 4-2 on aggregate.  

Previous Best:  3rd Place (1966)

2010 World Cup Result: Round of 16

Odds to Win:  22/1

Fan Mindset:

Every Portuguese fan will say Ronaldo is a better player than Messi and will fight you if you disagree.  Many seem to actually forget that prior to this generation, Portugal actually was not a big player on the international stage.  Between 1970 and 2006, Portugal never made the knockout rounds at the World Cup.  Still, with an athletic freak like Ronaldo on your side you can never be doomed to lose in the group of death......right?  Anyway, the fans will expect at least a run to the quarterfinals this time, without Spain in their way (like the 2010 World Cup and EURO 2012).  Their golden generation is in its prime and now is their chance.  

The Team:

Ronaldo, Pepe the terrible, and 10 other guys.  But seriously, this squad has some good talent to back him up.  In goal, either Rui Patricio or Braga's Eduardo will get the call from Coach Paulo Bento.  Going into the defense, I could swear this team is from Spain, it's dominated by La Liga talent.  Pepe, the infamous defender takes his spot on the defense alongside Real Madrid teammate Fabio Coentrao and Valencia's Ricardo Costa.  Pepe may be a notable defender, but Portugal's defense could see some trouble as Pepe is 31 and Costa is 33.  The faster offenses of Group G may overcome them.  At midfield Joao Moutinho and Manchester United's Nani will give the ball to Ronaldo because they should and if they don't bad things will happen.  Simple as that.  Helder Postiga is also a forward, but who cares.  ROOOONNNNNAAAALLLLLDDOOOOOO!  The athletic freak, the Ballon D'or 2013 winner, and the man who led Real to La Decima (their tenth Champions League Title) is looking to bring Portugal to world glory.  He's fallen just short every time.  He lost in the final of Euro 2004, the Round of 16 in 2010, and the semifinals in EURO 2012.  However, with a season behind him that saw him win the UCL and overtake Messi at least for the moment, Ronaldo looks ready to tackle the World Cup.  

X Factor:  

The Portuguese Midfield.  Since everything starts and ends with Ronaldo, a weaker midfield that cannot control the ball could spell disaster for Portugal.  Players in the midfield like Nani are notable inconsistent and with only 3 group games (2 if you think Germany winning is a forgone conclusion like me), they cannot afford to have a bad performance.  

Prediction:   Last in Group G.  And I will hold for the storm.

Now that I've lost you all, I'll say this.  Every damn World Cup there is a team that looks great on paper, but does not get the job done.  Usually it is because of a glaring problem people overlook due to other talent. That would be Portugal's midfield who are nicely overlooked because of Ronaldo's star power.  I do not think Portugal will control the ball enough for him.  I think they have the biggest disappointing exit this year.  

Relevant Gif:  If  ^this^ actually happens, what I'll feel like.  

Group H:

Belgium:  

Qualified: By winning their Group in UEFA qualifying over Croatia, Serbia, and Scotland.  They went an undefeated 8-2-0.  

Previous Best:  4th Place (1986)

2010 World Cup Result:  Did not qualify

Odds to Win:  20/1

Fan Mindset:  

Over the last two World Cups, Belgium has been the only major Western European country to miss the World Cup.  Now, the tables have flipped with traditional powers like France and England having low expectations, all eyes are on Belgium to perform well and reach the knockout rounds or better.  Belgium is the latest team this World Cup to have a so-called golden generation.  The thing that makes this Belgian team so frightening is that they are still very young.  Even if Brazil does not work out, I think they will excel at Russia 2018.  Also, they are the sexy pick.  Every World Cup, heck every season in every sport, there is a sexy team.  The team everyone expects to be a dark house that actually becomes pretty popular due to the added attention.  That team would be Belgium.  In the span of one year they went from dark horse, to sexy pick, to favorite, to overrated, and now back to sexy pick.  I do not think they are an elite team yet, but their fans should prepare for a fairly deep run.  Their group is one of the easier groups at the tournament as well.

The Team:  

In goals for the Belgians is Thibaut Courtois, the 22-year-old goalkeeper at Atletico Madrid.  His excellent season and La Liga title cement him as a top three goalie in the world despite his young age.  This will be a recurring theme for Belgium.  In front of him are two marquee Premier League defenders: captain and Man City leader Vincent Kompany and vice-captain from Arsenal Thomas Vermaelen.  These defenders begin a run of EPL members in this talented Belgian squad.  Mousa Dembele and Marouane "the fro" Fellaini.  Although Fellaini had a disappointing season at Manchester United, I still think he is a valuable asset to the Belgian midfield and to Coach Marc Wilmots.  However, the goalscorers of Belgian give them the firepower to make some big runs in Brazil.  Romelu Lukaku (21), Eden Hazard (23), and even Adnan Januzaj (19!) could come off the bench to help them.  Using Wilmots's 4-3-3 formation, Belgium will try to move the ball as quickly as they can on both attacks and counterattacks.  

X-Factor:

Romelu Lukaku.  Every time a team returns to the world stages after a long absence, it is often due to a strong team member that was the first to capture people's attention in a big time league.  Lukaku was......not that person.  That would be the injured Christian Benteke, whose heroics have helped Aston Villa survive in the Premier League these last two seasons.  However, Lukaku has had his big moments in the Premier League.  He was lent from Chelsea to Everton after missing a penalty in the UEFA Super Cup against Bayern, but blossomed at Everton scoring 15 goals in 31 appearances so far.  He will be Belgium's striker and hopefully the last player to touch the ball before it goes in the back of the net.  When you play such an aggressive fast-paced formation on such a young team, you are bound to have your chances.  The question is, will he be able to convert them?  

Prediction:  First in Group H and a shot at glory in the quarterfinals before bowing out this time around.  

Relevant Gif:  How all the young players on Belgium will feel after their run in the World Cup.

 

Russia:

Qualified: By winning their UEFA qualifying group over favored Portugal and going 7-1-2 in the process.  Not the most impressive qualifying campaign, but qualifying is qualifying.  

Previous Best:  4th Place (1966) as the Soviet Union.  They have never advanced out of the group's as Russia.  

2010 World Cup Result::  Did not Qualify

Odds to Win:  80/1

Fan Mindset: 

Russia is as big of an enigma in the world of soccer as it is in everything else.  The fans are drunk, angry, and riot when they win and when they lose.  So, maybe they're not so different from other Europeans after all.  Russia has clearly been in the news recently for non-soccer reasons shall we say.  To drop that talk for awhile and focus on football is interesting, but it shows us why this Russian team is such a "wildcard" in this tournament.  No one really knows what to expect.  After many picked them as a surprise squad in EURO 2012, some have fallen off Russia's bandwagon after they fell in the group stages to a Czech Republic and Greek side they really should have beaten.  However, I still see quite a bit of talent in this roster.  Russia is a sleeping giant; no one wants to admit it, but if they ever get their national team truly together, they could make some great teams.

The Team:

Welcome to the true team of mystery.  Part of the reason people rarely talk about or expect much of this team is their lack of participation in Europe's top leagues.  In fact, the ENTIRE 23 man roster all play in the Russian Premier League.  Everyone.  That's both interesting and frightening.  What is Putin doing to keep them so close to home?  Anyway, two Igors dominate this roster.  Igor Akinfeev is their goalkeeper from CSKA Moscow and Igor Denisov is their midifelder captain from Dynamo Moscow.  Other important players include 23-year-old forward Alan Dzagoev of, you guessed it, CSKA Moscow.  Also, their main striker and goalscoring threat is Aleksandr (most Russian name/spelling ever) Kerzhakov of Bayern Munich.......just kidding he's actually from Zenit St. Petersburg, but at least he escaped Moscow, right?  For such a team of mystery, their coach is actually well known.  Fabio Capello is the Italian who coached England at the last World Cup and resigned amid disagreements with the English FA.  English fans will certainly not be too displeased if he falters in Russia too.  

X-Factor: 

Russia's stone cold defense.  As you might expect from a cold, hardened nation, their team is a strong defensive side.  They shut down Ronaldo and the Portuguese in the qualifying rounds and they need to do the same in Brazil.  South Korea and Algeria are not terribly impressive attacking wise, but I especially cannot wait to see them match up against the quick footed Belgians.  If their defense holds, their iffy offense should be able to relax and score enough to get them to the knockout rounds.  

Prediction:  2nd in Group H, but no further than the Last 16 due to Germany.  

Relevant Gif:  Actually this one is not relevant at all, just hilarious.  It's Putin's head photoshopped onto Vince McMahon's body.  I love the Internet. 

South Korea:

Qualified:  By finishing 2nd in their final round qualifying group behind Iran and barely beating out Uzbekistan for a World Cup spot.

Previous Best: 4th Place (2002, as co-hosts)

2010 World Cup Result: Round of 16

Odds to Win:  250/1

Fan Mindset:  

After co-hosting the tournament with Japan in 2002, South Korea has been a staple at the World Cup and they have grown to dominate Asian qualifying.  However, with other nations in Asia growing in soccer interest and skill, South Korea suffered a weaker than expected qualifying run and some are predicting a tough time for them in Brazil, even in the relatively easy Group H.  The point of holding a World Cup in a non-traditional soccer country is to grow the sport, which has been successful in South Korea.  However, it also raises the standards of that team to its fans.  South Korea is now expected to be a top 1 or 2 team in the AFC, and a group stage bow out would be disappointing.  

The Team:

Holy hyphenated names Batman!  Jung Sung-Ryong starts in goal backed by a pair of Bundesliga defenders in Hong Jeong-Ho and Park Joo-Ho (seriously, these names man).  In midfield are Mainz 05's Koo Ja-Heol and Swansea City's (EPL) Ki Sung-Yueng (no really, like I'm not trying to spread stereotypes, these are the real names).  At froward, another Bundesliga pair.  Bayer Leverkusen's 21-year-old Son Heung-Min and and Dortmund's Ji Dong-Won will try to score on the staunch defense of Algeria and prevent dispossession by the quick Belgians.  Min has been especially impressive, securing a contract extension at Dortmuind and being a great chance creator for the club.  The national team and Coach Hong Myung-bo will need him at his best for this side to have a chance at progressing.  

X-Factor:  

Youth.  This is another team whose roster is filled with young players.  However, unlike Belgium this squad does not possess strong counter-attackers, so they will need to control the ball and score early.  The all hyphen team must play veteran style ball with youth-like precision.  That is much more easily said than done and it may not be possible this tournament around for the South Koreans.  

Prediction:  3rd-in-Group-H-but-do-not-worry-they-will-get-better-soon.

Relevant Gif:  If South Korea managed to top this weak group after all.

Algeria:

Qualified:  Via the CAF playoffs after topping their group (5-0-1).  In the playoffs they met and defeated Burkina Faso 3-3 on  away goals.

Previous Best:  Group Stages (1982, 1986, 2010)

2010 World Cup Result:  Group Stages (Last)

Odds to Win:  1500/1

Fan Mindset:  

The Algerians are known for their tough rivalry with Egypt.  International diplomacy actually had to be brought in the last time these two sides faced off.  This time around Algeria squeaked through to the World Cup while their rivals Egypt were crushed by Ghana.  That must make the Algerian fans happy.  The play of their team at this World Cup will probably not.  Besides the fact they are in an easy group, there are not too many positives for the Algerians this time around after suffering heart breaking losses in the groups last World Cup (1-0 losses to Slovenia and the USA).  Any results at all, even a draw or two, would be a good result.  

The Team:

Looking over the squad, their credentials certainly are not as bad as some other last place hopefuls like Iran and Honduras.  We certainly should not write off the Algerians just yet for this reason.  Majdid Bougherra, the captain of Algeria headlines their best feature, dogged defense.  As England and the USA found out in South Africa (1-0 and 0-0 results), Algeria's goal scoring efforts may be laughable but good luck breaking their defensive unit, especially when they are not even trying to get off too many attacks.  Coach Vahid Halilhozic is making his World Cup debut and has decided to go with a younger generation of attacking players like Porto's Nabil Ghilas and Lisbon's Islam Simani to try and jump start an offense that failed to score in the 2010 World Cup even once.  They will certainly have their work cut out for them.  

X Factor:

Goalscoring.  At the 2010 World Cup, Algeria was at -2 goal differential.  2 conceded, 1 scored.  That means that assuming their defense does not falter (which it may not), then all Algeria has to do is find the back of the net even once per game to ensure they see at least some positive result.  Boy, you know a preview has been going on a long time when scoring is now an "X Factor"

Prediction:  Last in Group H, but they get at least 1 scoreless draw out of it.  

Relevant Gif:  If Algeria goes another whole World Cup without scoring to make it a six match dry spell.

 

FIN.

2014 NBA Finals, Game 3: The Dawn of KAWHI

In preparation for last year's NBA Finals, I read a lot of literature while looking for a player that wasn't part of either team's Big 3 to focus on. I know if someone said something like "watch out for Danny Green" or "watch out for Mike Miller" to me before the Finals started, I would have thought at the series' conclusion that that dude was pretty smart. I was determined to be that dude. If this is alien to you, and you've never done anything like this, you're lying.

After my few days of deliberation, I decided that Kawhi Leonard would be my player to watch. He averaged 12 points on 49.4% shooting with 6 rebounds and a couple of assists and steals per game in the 2012-2013 campaign, so he wasn't completely under the radar. However, he would have the Herculean task of guarding unanimous-except-for-one-Melo-vote MVP LeBron James. His success or failure in this role would, of course, have a big impact on which team stood victorious at the end of the series. I also chose to follow Kawhi because (1) his name is Kawhi and (2) his braids hypnotized me in to it. 

Legendary.

The Spurs lost, but Kawhi played well enough to make me look like I knew what I was talking about. He averaged a double-double in the Finals (14.6 points and 11.1 rebounds), and held James to under 45% shooting in a year that he shot 56.5% from the field. So, naturally, Kawhi was once again my player to watch for this year's Finals. And boy, for two games, did I look stupid. James scored 23 in the three quarters he played in Game 1, and went off for 35 in Miami's Game 2 win. On the other end, Kawhi wasn't much better: he had 9 points in both games, which is actually surprisingly high given the deep foul trouble he always seemed to be in. Once he committed his fourth foul with 4 minutes left in Game 2's third quarter, he wasn't Kawhi anymore. He was Leonard. Kawhi started that game; Leonard fouled out of it with 47.7 seconds left to play with the Heat up by five. 

Game 3 started, and Leonard was off to an excellent start. He attacked the basket with more energy than we've seen from him in any game during these playoffs and forced his opponents to foul him. For an instant, I thought that Kawhi might return. Instead, we saw something even greater.

His defense on James was astounding all night. Yes, James scored 14 in the first quarter, including 12 consecutive Heat points. That said, anyone watching that game would know that Leonard was not to be blamed. A lot of the points came in motion, when Leonard had shifted on to a player closer to the backcourt. Six of James' points came on two consecutive possessions in which Andersen came up from the block, set a pick on Leonard, and James took advantage of Duncan lazily lunging from the paint to jack up an open 3. 

Allow me to digress for a second, since I'm thinking of Andersen. There are a number of reasons why I'd like to see the Spurs win this series: Kawhi/Leonard, my admitted "championship fatigue" that would like to see a team other than the defending champs win, and my desire to just be nice to Tim Duncan. But Chris Andersen's presence on the Heat is undeniably one of the reasons I'm rooting against them. I take no pleasure seeing him on the court, and he's taking up a roster spot that could be filled by anyone else. For one thing, I'm not sure he really wants to play basketball. Sure, he gets really excited when he's playing, but you only see this after he tips in someone else's miss after spending the previous twenty seconds moving in and out of the paint just enough to not have a 3-second violation called. His style of play creates an image of a big and tall guy who picked up a ball just to silence the countless friends and family who looked at his larger-than-normal frame and said "you should play basketball," when all he wanted to do was whittle soap animals and listen to the smooth jazz of Miles Davis. He made a career of just being bigger than other people, and not necessarily more talented or even motivated. I just want him to be truly happy and make boxes like Jesse always wanted. Also, his beard is gross. You just can't do it with his scraggly blondish hair. It'll never work.

Intimidating!

Festive!

Disgusting.

Anyway, same play twice, and Leonard wasn't to blame either time. James scored eight points the rest of the way, a total that James can beat in a quarter, let alone three. No longer hampered by foul trouble, Leonard played James very close, and every single one of his drives required a lot of work just to get into the paint, where James settled for a kick out or a low-percentage shot. It was this defense that made me think good ol' Kawhi was back.

But, like Jesus resurrecting from the dead, the player known as Kawhi Leonard returned from fouling out of Game 2 better than anyone could have imagined, becoming KAWHI. His performance on offense was what drove this transformation home. Even on a night when the Spurs peaked at 19-of-21 from the field and looked like no one could miss a shot, KAWHI stood out. When the Spurs were stuck on any offensive possession throughout the game, KAWHI seemed to be standing at the arc as a dependable outlet, putting points on the board before he even finished his shooting motion. All told, he finished 10-of-13, including 3-of-6 from downtown, for a playoff career-high 29 points. 

KAWHI was an important cog in the machine of the Spurs' offense last night, which slapped the Heat D around for 71 points in the first half. Despite that half and the final margin of 19 points, it's a mistake to think that the Spurs have figured Miami out and that this will be a five game series. In fact, San Antonio demolished them 113-77 in Game 3 last year, and we all know how that turned out. Counting out the Heat at this point is a mistake for two principal reasons. First, there is no way the Spurs will shoot as well as they did in Game 3 ever again, let alone in a game during this series. It is impossible to score 41 points in a quarter on 87% shooting. I witnessed San Antonio do just that in the first, and I still stand by my assertion. Second, the Heat are too good to let something like Game 3 stop them. Somehow, it didn't feel like Miami was out of it until there were only 2 or 3 minutes left, even though they never trailed by less than seven after the game's opening minutes and usually found themselves behind by double digits. The way the Heat move the ball on offense gives the viewer the constant feeling that they are one Wade drive or Allen three-ball away from a scoring run. They were down by three touchdowns at the half, their transition offense was surprisingly lackluster (accumulating the first two of their four fast break points midway through the third quarter on a James steal and layup) and still managed to scare Spurs fans that they'd lose the lead before long. That resilience combined with the sheer talent on the Miami roster is, in fact, an omen that the Heat are never out of the game.

The competition was tight every second of Games 1 & 2, save for the time James spent on the bench with his cramps. As a basketball fan, I thoroughly enjoyed this, and would love to see more of the same. Since I'm confident these two teams would each win exactly 500,000 games if they played each other a million times, we can probably expect that. That said, it might be just as fun to acquaint myself with this new player, KAWHI. As I see it, as long as KAWHI is on the court, the Spurs don't need to shoot 75% in a half to win. They just need him.

Kyle and His Relevant Gifs' Shameless World Cup Preview Part 3

Continued from Part 2

GROUP E:
France:  
Qualified:  Via the UEFA Playoffs against Ukraine (3-2 on aggregate), after finishing ass runners-up in group I to group winners Spain.
Previous Best:  Winners (1998, as hosts)
2010 World Cup Result: Group Stages (LAST)
Odds to Win:  22/1 

Fan Mindset:
It's the French, they're either pissed off or asleep.  All jokes aside, they were pissed back in 2010, they had every right to be.  The team that made the final at 2 of the last three World Cups (1998, 2006) flamed out in the groups against (Uruguay, Mexico, and South Africa).  The team mutinied on their coach and refused to practice and went out of the tournament scoring only one goal.  Whenever a team loses focus and infighting begins during a tournament, it is a sign of disaster and France was no exception.  With the days of Zinedine Zidane and Thierry Henry in the past, it is up to a new generation of Frenchman to show up in Brazil.  The fans back in Paris will riot if they don't make it out of the groups; then again, they'll probably riot if they do, or if it's Wednesday. 

The Team:
France's back line is both youthful and experienced at the same time, a rare but invaluable asset.  They are led by goalkeeper and captain Hugo Lloris  of Tottenham, and by Real Madrid defender Raphael Varane.  They also have veterans present in Patrice Evra.  Midfielder Paul Pogba and striker Karim Benzema round of Coach Didier Deschamps squad.  Notably missing is the injured Franck "I'm scary as hell" Ribery.  Off the bench are notable EPL players such as Moussa Sissoko and Oliver Giroud, showcasing France's depth.  Also, no one on the expected starting eleven outside of Evra is over the age of 30; this is a young, talented squad to say the least.  Due to the fact that they had such a flameout last time, expectations are low media-wise for the French, but many should consider them a dark horse.  

X-Factor:
Raphael Varane.  The defender has received many accolades at Real Madrid and will be needed to ensure France finishes atop their group.  The French are always unpredictable in the World Cup, so whether Deschamps uses a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 formation, Varane will need to show his valuable La Liga skill-set if France hope to go far in Brazil.  

Prediction:  First in Group E, but then a quarterfinals loss in good ol' fashioned blitzkrieg style to the even more talented Germans.
Relevant Gif:  The only French i knew as a child.

Ecuador:
Qualified:  4th in CONMEBOL Round Robin Qualifying, over Uruguay for the final automatic spot.
Previous Best:  Round of 16 (2006)
2010 World Cup Result:  Did not Qualify (missed by 1 point)
Odds to Win:  125/1

Fan Mindset:  
After making the Round of 16 for the first time ever in 2006, many Ecuadorian fans expected their tiny nation to suddenly jump to prominence in South America.  8 years later, Ecuador bowed out in the first round of two Copa Americas (the South American championship tournament) and fell just short of qualifying in 2010.  Still, the current team enacted some revenge on Uruguay by knocking them into the playoff round, so Ecuador could qualify automatically.  That, combined with the prospect of the first South American World Cup since 1978, gives Ecuador a golden opportunity to recapture glory they thought they could grasp 4 years ago.  Anything other than the knockout rounds would be a disappointment. 

The Team:
Home-field advantage has new meaning when it comes to Ecuador as their home stadium in Quito is at nearly 10,000 feet and allowed the team to go an incredible 7-1-0 in qualifying.  On the other hand, Ecuador did not win a single road game during this period.  This fact highlights that their team is full of talent that either shows up or does not.  Ecuador's defense only allowed 16 goals in 16 matches in qualifying, again with only 3 allowed at home.  The side that travels best for them is their midfield headlined by vice-captain Walter Ayovi and captain Antonio Valencia of Manchester United.  The Ecuadorian midfield and Coach Reinaldo Rueda's favorite target is goalscoring threat Felipe Caicedo who scored 7 goals in 9 games for the team in qualifying.  

X Factor:  
Playing on the road or at home?  The team has been one of the most egregious offenders of playing awful on the road, but invincible at home.  The question is, will they feel on the road, or right at home in Brazil?  They will not be in Ecuador's elevation or environment, but they are the sole South Americans in Group E, a rather weak group.  They need to feel comfortable playing in Brazil and not show any signs of inexperience in their matches, especially against seeded team Switzerland. 

Prediction:  2nd in Group E.  One of the more unexpected members of the knockout rounds, but certainly not past the Round of 16 where they would likely face Argentina.
Relevant Gif:  Opponents when told that Ecuador's home stadium is at 10,000 feet.

 

Switzerland:

Qualified:  As group E winners in UEFA qualifying.  This was by far the weakest group in UEFA.  The only other teams of note in their group were Slovenia and Iceland (who actually made the playoffs, that's how weak it was).   

Previous Best: Quarterfinals (1934, 1938, 1954)

2010 World Cup Result: Group Stages (3rd)

Odds to Win:  100/1

Fan Mindset:  

The Swiss are a calm people, but you can bet they were excited after the first match of their 2010 World Cup experience.  Tournament favorites Spain looked lost as Switzerland won 1-0.  Unfortunately for the Swiss, a loss and a draw, left them with four points at out at the group stages.  Meanwhile, Spain never looked back and won every remaining match to win the World Cup.  Still, the result was impressive for an unheralded Swiss side which has had its share of good fortune.  First, it was placed in the easiest qualifying group, then due to its inflated FIFA ranking it was seeded.  That's right, Switzerland was one of the top 7 FIFA ranked teams.  Not Italy, not England, not the Netherlands, and not Portugal.  When you have some luck on your side, why not just roll with it.  The Swiss fans are hoping their luck will stay with them through three group matches this time around.  

The Team:

Though they were a surprising seeded team, the Swiss certainly do not lack talent or youthfulness.  Coach Ottmar Hitzfeld has his hands full picking a starting XI.  This squad is almost entirely European based in clubs.  9 of the 23 Swiss squad members are in the Bundesliga.  The most notable of these is the 22-year-old Xherdan Shaqiri who plays for Bayern Munich.  Although his playing time has been limited, he is a great talent that should easily be starting.  Meanwhile, another Bundesliga player Erin Derdiyok was left off the squad entirely due to his extremely poor form this year at Bayer Leverkusen.  Clearly, Hitzfeld is looking for in-form talent, not just potential.  Josip Drmic, the Nurnberg striker rounds out the front level talent for the confident Swiss.

The X-Factor:  

The Swiss midfield.  Midfield may be the most important position in soccer.  It controls both sides of the ball and determines possession, and if their win over Spain in 2010 proved something, it is that possession is key in such close knit matches.  The Swiss midfield is led by captain Gokhan Inler and Valon Behrami both of the Italian club Napoli.  Their play, if successful, will allow players like Shaqiri to push further up the field in assistance of Drmic, the lone striker in Hitzfeld's system.  Whenever you play a system with only one striker, midfield is critical to supporting that striker with quality balls in the box, and maintaining possession.  Both of these actions need to be done well for Switzerland to make it out of the group.

Prediction:  3rd in Group E.  The opening match against Ecuador will not be a repeat of Spain last year.  I think they have the unfortunate distinction of being the only seeded team to fall in the group stages.  

Relevant Gif:  Swiss Bankers when they see Switzerland lose in the group stages.

Honduras:

Qualified:  By finishing 3rd in CONCACAF's Hexagonal, above Mexico by beating the Mexicans 2-1 in Mexico City.

Previous Best:  Group Stages (1982, 2010)

2010 World Cup Result:  Group Stages (Last)

Odds to Win:  1500/1

Fan Mindset:  

The Central American nation had not made a World CUp since 1982, when they surprisingly qualified for the 2010 World Cup.  The news prompted celebrations all throughout Honduras that were not dampened even by a group stage loss and last place finish.  Now that they have qualified for the World Cup again, Honduras is glad to be here and hoping they can improve on the one point they came away with in South Africa four years ago.

The Team:  

The team is very streaky, they managed good results against the USA and Mexico, but dropped a few games to Panama.  They also, do not have a notable defense or a reputable midfield.  They also struggle to find a regular striker, which......isn't good news for them.  As always, any team that is comprised of  mostly local league talent (like Honduras), will rarely has problems in chemistry, but problems in rotations and talent abound.  Coach Luis Fernando Suarez (not who you think), who took Ecuador took the last 16 in 2006, has tried to work his magic in Honduras since arriving.  Honduras mainly runs a fairly listless 4-4-2 system that focuses on their midfielders.  In midfield their few bright spots of European (mostly EPL) talent shows itself.  There is midfielder Wilson Palacios of Stoke City and Roger Espinoza of Wigan Athletic.  Emilio Izaguirre is a defener from Celtic who has shown some promise for club and country when not injured.  These individuals offer Honduras's best bet for at least making some noise in Brazil.

The X-Factor:

Placement.  Often, a squad's formation and their ability to run the system of thier choosing determines how they play and for Honduras it is no different.  With so many holes in their roster, a thin squad at the back, and a team lacking youth, Honduras will need to be crafty to face up against 3 teams much better than them in the group stages.  Coach Suarez will need to confirm the 4-4-2 is the best formation for the Hondurans, or work quickly to find something better.  Lack of a plan will only result in an even worse Cup for the squad.  

Prediction:  Last in Group E, but they may repeat their 2010 performance of 1 point if they can scrape a draw with Switzerland.  

Relevant Gif:  How Honduras feels about making back-to-back World Cups for the first time ever.  

GROUP F:

Argentina:

Qualified:  Winners and top team in the CONMEBOL Round Robin.

Previous Best:  Winners (1978, 1986)

2010 World Cup Result:  Quarterfinals

 Odds to Win:  4/1

Fan Mindset:

Win.  Simple as that.  This squad is supremely talented, well managed(now that Maradona is gone), nearly on home soil, have both youth and experience, and have arguably the world's best player on arguably the world's deepest team.  Put it this way, a quarterfinals berth and a loss to Germany (an impressive team) in 2010 still was not enough to win former Coach Diego Maradona a new contract with the squad he once led to World Cup glory.  Argentine's are in the same boat as Brazil.  Champions or failure.  They have Messi and all the pieces as well as a history of excellence (2 titles, 4 finals).  Everyone is ready to crown Messi the next Maradona, the next all-time great.  With 3 Champions League titles, hundreds of goals, and 4 Ballon d'ors (the soccer equivalent of the MVP), all Messi is lacking is some home country success to cement his legacy.

The Team:  

To say the team is all Messi would be unfair, buuuuut let's make it clear.  They have Messi, no other team does.  That means they are instantly a nearly unstoppable goal scoring threat from anywhere on the pitch.  And as if Messi wasn't enough, Coach Alejandro Sabella also has the secondary and tertiary threats of Sergio Agüero and Gonzalo Higuaín(who by the way has the best home crowd when he scores at Napoli).  At midfielder, Javier Mascherano and Angel di Maria, drop their El Clasico rivalry to join forces and form a more than solid midfield.  And on the defense Manchester City teammates Pablo Zabaleta and Martin Demichelis hold up a backline that wants to keep the ball at Messi, Agüro, or Higuaín's feet at all times.  Good things happen when those guys get the ball.  Very good things for Argentina's title hopes.

The X-Factor:

Messi's health and performance.  If the world's best players performs like it at the world's biggest tournament, it could be the greatest performance in Argentine history.  If he and the team flops, it could be their greatest embarrassment ever.  Clearly, a lot of pressure is on the shoulders of the little man from Barcelona.  However, Messi's health and play have been concerning in the past year for Barcelona.  Without Pep Guardiola and with players like Xavi and Puyol heading out of their prime, Messi "struggled" this year.  I say """"struggled"""" because he still scored 41 goals in 46 games.  This is the question?  Was Messi taking it easy in a World Cup year and saving energy, or is this a serious downturn in his game.  Either way, he is still #1 or #2 in the world and has a better backing squad than Cristiano Ronaldo has at Portugal.  If Messi is even a 7 on his scale of 1-10, Argentina makes the semis easily, if he shows up at a 10, they could win the whole thing.  Winning the Cup in Brazil may just surpass winning as hosts in 1978 or Maradona's run in 1986 as the best win ever by Argentina especially if they........

Prediction:  Win the final against Brazil.  That's right.  First in Group F and my pick as world Champions.  Can you imagine if they also beat Spain on this run as well?  It would be incredible and the Messi GOAT conversation would swing into full gear a couple of years earlier than expected.  

Relevant Gif:  Argentina's reaction if my prediction comes true.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Qualified:  By winning their UEFA group by goal differential over Greece and going an impressive 8-1-1 with an undefeated road record.  

Previous Best:  NEVER QUALIFIED

2010 World Cup Result: NEVER QUALIFIED

Odds to Win:  150/1

Fan Mindset:  

The nation of Yugoslavia fractured in the early 1990s, but it certainly was not a friendly fairwell.  Ethnics Serbs in Bosnia led Serbia to invade and start Europe's bloodiest war since World War II.  This war led to infrastructural collapse, genocide claims, and a generation born in war.  For Bosnia, this generation is one born in blood, but blessed with talent as well.  Nations often go through periods of good times collectively referred to as "golden generations."  This is certainly Bosnia's golden generation and their chance in the spotlight.  They are the only debut nation at this year's World Cup and they carry with them the hopes of their tiny nation and other small nations hoping or their day in the spotlight.  If all goes well, it may not be a short run for these newcomers.  

The Team:  

This team truly has once in a lifetime talent and is built quite well for a World Cup run.  The defense is led by goalkeeper Asmir Begovic of Stoke City who only allowed 6 goals in 10 qualifying matches.  Captain Emir Spahić and Sead Kolašinac back up a Bundesliga-led defense to support Begović.  In midfield, Bosnia is equally gifted with talent as Coach Safet Susic has stacked the squad with offensive minded talent.  There may be no other team in Brazil that is so quick to press the ball forward, even against teams with good counterattacks.  Susic will have to make sure Bosnia are not caught off guard and exploited at the back.  While the defense stars Bundesliga players, two Serie A players sure up the midfield in Senad Lulić and Miralem Pjanić.  Strikers Edin Džeko and Vedad Ibišević shined in qualifying with backup from the midfield, but it is unknown if Susic will play them together or separately.  

The X-Factor:  

Midfield play and possession.  Without possession, this team quickly becomes frazzled as seen in some high-energy friendlies earlier this year.  However, with possession they become one of the most aggressive and crafty teams at the tournament.  The key will be to not stray out of their positions or panic even when dispossessed by the better teams at the tournament.  If they can avoid too much damage and focus on utilizing their great strengths in midfield and at striker, then they may look like the seasoned veterans in Brazil after all.  

Prediction:  2nd in Group F to go to the knockout rounds, but a better team in the Round of 16 will send them home.

Relevant Gif:  When Susic is asked what formation Bosnia will use at the World Cup.

Nigeria:

Qualified:  By winning their CAF group easily (the easiest group in qualifying) and by winning their playoff home-and-away 4-1 (against Ethiopia, the easiest playoff opponent...).  

Previous Best: Round of 16 (1994, 1998)

2010 World Cup Result:  Group Stage (Last)

Odds to Win:  300/1

Fan Government Mindset:  

The Nigerian team was so embarrassing at the 2010 World Cup that the president of Nigeria Goodluck Jonathan suspended the Nigerian team from international competition for two years (counterproductive, I know).  Luckily for Nigeria, FIFA threatened to impose a World Cup ban on the team for political interference if the ban was not lifted.  And good timing too.  Soon after the ban was lifted, Nigeria won the African Cup of Nations in 2013, over more favored nations like Ghana and the Ivory Coast.  With that in the rearview mirror, Nigeria looks to pull itself together for Brazil and god help the players if they fall in the groups again.  The president may just terminate the team permanently.  That'll show FIFA!  

The Team:  

While the squad lacks the firepower, finesse, and flashiness of the more favored African sides, they should not be left for dead in Group E, but they probably should not be favored either.  Vincent Enyeama, their goalkeeper anchors a strong defense that backs up a sometimes lackluster scoring combo.  20-year-old Kenneth Omeruo was a strong defender in the African Cup and looks to have a bright future at Chelsea. John Obi Mikel is also at Chelsea and also performed strongly at the African Cup, garnering much acclaim and showing his prowess as a team leader.  For a team that failed last World Cup, outspoken leaders that play as hard as they can are needed for Nigeria.  Victor Moses and Emmanuel Emenike star for the Nigerian attack that has been intermittent at times.  There is no such thing as "having a bad game or two" at the World Cup; you either show up or get out and these two need to show their full strength.  No one else on the squad can reproduce their goalscoring at the moment.  

The X-Factor:  

Players staying power.  It's hard to choose teams for a national squad.  Who knows if a player who had a good year at his club is a product of his system, or genuinely good.  On the other hand, maybe a player that had a bad season can return to form for a club.  With very limited international matches and few chances to prove oneself, the players that stood out in the African Cup and qualifying are almost certainly in Coach Stephen Keshi's Starting XI, no questions asked.  However, I will ask a question.  What happens when you go from playing Kenya to Argentina with unproven talent.  Bad things.  I'm just not sure the Nigerians have gotten their act together just yet.  

Prediction:  3rd in Group F.  This is the one of only 2 groups where I'm confident enough to say that the difference between 2nd and 3rd could well be decided on goal differential.  And with Nigeria's goalscoring sputters, I'll give the nod to Bosnia over them.  

Relevant Gif:  Nigeria's president if they lose in the group stages again.  

Iran:

Qualified: Because the Grand Ayatollah said so!.....Or because they managed to finish first in AFC Group A qualifying ahead of South Korea and Qatar.

Previous Best:  Group Stages (1978, 1998, 2006)

2010 World Cup Result:  Did not Qualify

Odds to Win:  2500/1

Fan Mindset: 

Remember how i said, previous bad World Cup teams were NOT the "glad to be here" team. Guess what? This is the "glad to be here" team.  We're glad they're here, now take your 3 losses and exit stage left.  To say a team has no chance is offensive and wrong.  To say Iran has no realistic chance is both accurate and prudent.  Their highest level European player is someone who plays for a Swiss squad called Grasshopper.  I wish I could be making this up.  Group Stages is as far as fans expect them to get and a point or two would be a fantastic result.  

The Team:  

Old.  Very, very old.  If Argentina-Iran finsihes better than 3-0 to Argentina, they should be commended.  There may only be 1 or 2 players in Coach Carlos Queiroz's Starting XI in Brazil.  They will need to rely on that experience if they have any hope of advancing.  However, if that experience is outside of the world's top leagues anyway with players on their last legs, is it any help at all?  This team may have won their qualifying group, but beyond that they do not look impressive at all.  33-year-old captain Javad Nekounam is Iran's veteran central midfielder....that currently plays for a team in Kuwait.  Ashkan Dejagah is a winger for now Champioship side Fulham that may be employed as a winger for added firepower.  Beyond that, the squad is pretty thin and 14 of the 23 members of the squad play in Iran's national league which is not all that impressive.  

The X Factor:  

The element of.....uranium.....I mean surprise....  Many of these players are little known and where they will be played is a mystery.  While this is a bad thing for Iran's preparation, it will also make them a strange side for other nations to prepare for.  However, just because a nation is hard to prepare for does not make Victor Moses, Edin Džeko, and Lionel Messi go away.  I do not see Iran surviving long enough to earn a point.  

Prediction:  Last in Group F.  No points.  

Relevant Gif:  Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when Iran gets blown out by Argentina.