It occurred to me in the top of the 8th. The Giants were to win the World Series.
I’m not even going to pretend I’m a hardcore
baseball nut, so while I do have a history with baseball, assume my position of
a casual fan.
We were all rooting for the Kansas City Royals, whether
we admit it or not. It’s not too hard to
say they were the underdog. Even if both teams did come from the wild card. However,
recent history suggests why the Giants were so heavily favored. We all know the stats. World Champions in 2010 and 2012 and equipped with
consistent playoff appearances since, the Giants have the talent, experience,
and foundation to succeed.
On the other hand, the Royals entered their first
playoffs appearance in three decades. An
entire generation of fans who don’t know winning. No one on the team will blow
you away. You can’t even say their formula
is found in a grit and grind mentality.
No. Their recipe for success is in
their uncanny ability to perform up to the talent of their opponent. Where other, more talented teams play down to
the ability of weaker opponents and develop bad habits, the Royals stayed
consistent in cold stretches and grounded in their loose-aggressive style that
manager Ned Yost enabled. Little did
they know, that style would be their downfall.
The Royals played to win. That is why we loved them. What they didn't have in batting averages, strikeouts, and homeruns they made up in speed, defense, and micro-managing. Always put in the best possible position to
succeed, the Royals ran with what advantages they had and- just happy to be in
the playoffs- took on the classic ‘why not us’ attitude.
We loved the Royals just as much as we loved any
other underdog. We see ourselves in
them. Seeing an underdog succeed makes
us believe we can too. They are
never as talented as the opposition, and often have to work harder in order to
win. That’s what makes them so admirable
and so easy to root for.
Likewise, that’s what makes it so easy to be the
underdog. No one really believes they can
win. Therefore, they don’t have to play
with impossible expectations over their heads.
Just look at the star studded Dodgers who couldn't find a way to win the game. Their expectations were insanely high and that
definitely loomed over until the pressure became too great. The opposite was so apparent in the Royals incredibly
wild play. Their ceiling was making the
playoffs so after that they played as free and focused as any team could.
Eventually, however, a shift occurs. Eventually you start to win too many games
and the pressure and expectations slowly creep back and affect play. Only for the Royals, this never happened.
This was a direct result to the loose-aggressive
style of Ned Yost. He was aggressive in
his coaching. His rapid yet calculated
substitutions and calls to the bullpen undoubtedly made his team better. However, Yost wasalso responsible for the
loose and lively culture in the locker room. As the pressure crept back, Yost and the team
hid behind that culture as a means for coping with the stress.You can see it in the post-games, you can see
it in their interviews, and you can see it on their faces, the Royals are a
team hiding behind a veil of relaxation to shield themselves from the
crushing pressure of the World Series.
I don’t know when that happened. I hadn’t realized
it until the top of the 8th of game 7. But believe me, it happened.
You can’t beat baseball. I know that much. I’m not saying that’s what Yost and the
Royals set out to do, but I am saying they got in baseballs way. More than anything baseball is a sport of
nerves, stress, and pressure. You stand
around on the field just waiting for something to happen. Batters freeze up at the plate, either
over-thinking consequences or not thinking at all. Pitchers try to stay in the realm of the game
and not let the magnitude of the moment get to them, knowing that one pitch will
make or break a career. It is a cruel
sport. In an instant it’s over. Yet until that instant is a millennia of waiting,
enduring the slow churning of the stomach as the pressure materializes into a tiny
ball that refuses to leave.
There are no winners in baseball, only losers. Those who endure the longest will come out on
top. Eventually one side will give out. It can be in the form of a catastrophic collapse, or a tiny leak. Either way, one side
will give out. That is why the Royals
never had a chance. They never gave
themselves the opportunity to endure.
Stress and pressure is as much a part of the game as strikes and balls. Against the equally matched Giants they lost
from the start, yet it took me until almost the end to realize this. Sure, Bumgardener, Sandoval, and Posey
outclass the Royals roster, but they made up for it in speed, defense, wits,
and home field advantage. What put the Giants
over the edge was their experience in handling the moment, and while they
worked through pressure of the moment, the Royals seemed to avoid it and as a
result baseball too.
In this episode of my 2014 NFL preview, we'll take a look at the NFC North. For notes on methodology and stats I use in this preview, check out Part 1.
Green Bay Packers
Last year: 8-7-1 record, 1st in division 2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Eagles, Seahawks (SOS: 13th toughest) Key offseason acquisitions: DE Julius Peppers, S Ha Ha Clinton Dix (via draft) Key losses: C Evan Dietrich-Smith
As long as QB Aaron Rodgers is at the helm of Green Bay's offense, the Packers will not be a team anyone looks forward to playing. Despite only playing nine games, Rodgers tossed 17 TDs and 2,536 yards and a clip of 67% completion. If you extrapolate those stats, you end up with a 30 TD and over 4,500 yard season. And that's just in the air. Keep in mind that only Cam Newton has more rushing scores at the quarterback position than Rodgers since 2008, and his ability to create plays on the move is unmatched throughout the league. Last season was Rodgers' only one in which he missed more than one game; assuming he can stay on the field as he usually does, the Pack's offense will be a force.
That said, this offense might still be top-half caliber if I were the quarterback, thanks to the excellent skill position players in Green Bay. WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb make up one of the best one-two punches at the position (but incidentally, it's not even the best one in the division--more on that later). The tight end position is muddy in the wake of Jermichael Finley, but top candidate Andrew Quarless is a talented player with some experience catching passes from Rodgers. At running back, 2013 rookie of the year Eddie Lacy punished defenses last year. This was especially true when Rodgers was injured: with his quarterback on the sideline and all the defensive attention on him, Lacy averaged 4.4 yards per carry and scored seven times in seven games.
Even with the departure of Dietrich-Smith and the lack of an obvious go-to center, the offensive line is generally a solid unit. The Packers' line was already fifth best in run-blocking per adjusted line yards, and OT Bryan Bulaga will be back from an ACL tear that kept him out of the 2013 campaign. The line's pass blocking, on the other hand, is something of a cause for concern. Packers QBs were sacked at a pretty high rate, sustaining 45 sacks last year. The analysis appears worse when using adjusted sack rate, which takes things like the opposing defense, intentional grounding penalties, and down situation into account: by this figure, Green Bay had the seventh-worst pass-blocking in the league. Dependence on this line likely won't be a big issue, but it has the potential to threaten Rodgers more often than the Packers would like.
This ties into the second potential issue with the high-powered Pack offense. For all the talent around Rodgers, the success of their game plan is incredibly dependent upon him. Green Bay started 5-2 last year, and, following Rodgers' injury, promptly dropped their next 5 games. Ultimately, the non-Rodgers Packers went 2-5-1, both wins by just one point. If the leaky pass-blocking line lets too many guys through, Rodgers may find himself stranded on the sideline while the Packers offense is stranded on the field.
At this point, this is basically splitting hairs; we're talking about an offense that was tied for eighth in points, sixth in pass yards, seventh in rush yards, and ninth in offensive DVOA. Their real problem was on the other side of the ball, where the Green Bay defense was 25th ranked in points allowed and second-to-last in defensive DVOA. The defensive line is weak and largely relying on BJ Raji and new signee Julius Peppers to live up to their respective name values, a task which neither of which seems super prepared to accomplish. The linebackers other than Clay Matthews (who missed 2013 due to injury) are atrocious. The inability of AJ Hawk and Brad Jones to cover and their even worse run support are unlikely to be fixed by this year's fourth-rounder, Carl Bradford.
The secondary ought to be competent this year: Green Bay has three solid corners in Casey Heyward, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields, while Clinton-Dix out of Alabama is expected to play well at safety with Morgan Burnett, who played poorly due to injury last season. However, the rest of the defense is just too bad to expect much of an improvement on last year's totals, especially with some offenses on the slate that figure to be among the league's best in 2014. Combined with the overall slight changes on offense, it seems as if the Pack are destined for a finish unworthy of Rodgers' talent.
Player to watch: Eddie Lacy. It'll be interesting to see if Lacy can prove that his rookie year was not just a fluke, especially considering his splits with and without Rodgers. When Rodgers was out, Lacy carried 148 times for 7 TDs and 4.4 yards per carry; without him, Lacy had 136 carries for only 4 TDs and 3.9 yards per carry. 2014 projected finish: 9-7, 3rd. Led Zeppelin lyric: "But now it's time for me to go / The autumn moon lights my way / For now I smell the rain, and with it pain / And it's headed my way." (Ramble On; until this defense is fixed, everyone hop off the bandwagon)
NB: Shortly after posting, DE BJ Raji was ruled out for the year with a torn bicep.
Chicago Bears
Last year: 8-8, 2nd. 2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Cowboys, 49ers (SOS: 15) Key acquisitions: DE Jared Allen, DE Lamarr Houston, CB Kyle Fuller (via draft) Key losses: QB Josh McCown, DE Julius Peppers, DE Corey Wootton
The Bears are in line for one of the most drastic franchise image changes in not just NFL history, but in that of all of sports. Long known for powerful, stifling defenses, Chicago's success this year will come from an offensive attack comprised of some of the best skill position players in all of football in its attempt to overcome a painfully bad defense.
I've never loved Jay Cutler as a quarterback: he's never had great decision-making skills and he has a habit of getting himself hurt (he has missed 12 games in past three years, hasn't had a full season since 2009). But last year he posted a career high in the BDR metric, and now arguably has the best combination of receiving threats in the league. Cutler's chemistry with WR Brandon Marshall is well-documented; he's led the league in targets by a considerable margin in the two seasons since he's joined Chicago. But somehow, he didn't lead his own team in wide receiver yards last year. That title belonged to Alshon Jeffery, who truly broke out in his second year in the NFL. Combine these two receivers with a solid TE in Martellus Bennett, a low-risk, high-reward signing in WR Santonio Holmes, an excellent pass-catching running back in Matt Forte, and Cutler seems like he's due for a 5,000-yard season.
The biggest problem for this unit, by far, is going to be dodging injuries. As I previously mentioned, Cutler has had issues staying healthy. Last year, it wasn't a problem, as Josh McCown was able to step in and perform brilliantly in six games. The Bears came within a few seconds of making the playoffs last year in a winner-take-all game against the Packers, and there's no chance they get that close without McCown. Usually losing a backup QB isn't that big an offseason move, but McCown's status as an above-average backup and Cutler's propensity for injury make that a big loss for Chicago.
Forte hasn't been a notable injury risk, but the size of his career and 2013 workloads suggest that he might be in danger. First of all, he turns 29 in December, which is on the older side for running backs. Second, and more strikingly, after years of being the feature back for the Bears, he led the league in RB snaps last year with 887. This means Forte has more wear and tear than the average back his age, and will at least suffer some statistical regression, if not an actual injury.
Standing between the Bears' skill players and time on the bench is the offensive line, which a very difficult group to grasp. They allowed the fourth-fewest sacks of any line last year, but also surrendered 213 total pressures on 630 passing plays. Chicago had one of the best run games in RB yards per carry, but the line itself is ranked 20th in adjusted line yards. One possible reason for this variation is the discrepancy in skill level between the left and right side. The right side is perhaps the biggest question mark on this offense: G Kyle Long was inconsistent in 2013, and OT Jordan Mills had a disappointing rookie season. It seems like this side can be better in 2014, but that's mostly conjecture. The left side, however, was a force last year and figures to stay that way behind G Matt Slauson and OT Jermon Bushrod.
All things considered, this offense is the same versatile group that placed sixth in DVOA last year and has a very high ceiling. Exactly the opposite should be said about the once-fearsome Bears defense; they gave up the third-most yards and the second-most points of any defense in the NFL. Even after losing Peppers and Wootton, the defensive ends are probably the best part of this defense. Allen and Houston are solid acquisitions, and they also acquired some depth in Willie Young and Trevor Scott.
The corners, Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings, are also okay, and first-rounder Kyle Fuller is a big investment from Chicago in the hopes of providing depth at corner or perhaps eventually flexing to the safety position. Every other part of the defense is just no good. Their only semi-solid linebacker is the 34-year-old Lance Briggs, and their best safety is probably MD Jennings. In case you don't know that name, here's a quick player bio: he's not good at football. The improvements on the ends at at cornerback are enough so that the Bears D will be better. But much like their division rival Packers, the offense will face a weekly struggle against their own leaky defense. The difference: the Bears' schedule is slightly easier by virtue of finishing second in 2013, I'd say the Bears' offense is probably slightly better than that of the Packers, and the defense, as bad as it is, is unquestionably better. After just missing out on the division crown due to a transcendent game-ending drive from Aaron Rodgers, look for the Bears to reclaim it in 2014.
Player to watch: Kyle Fuller. If he plays well and can move to safety early on, the secondary suddenly gets much better and might lead to an even better season than expected. 2014 projected finish: 10-6, 1st. Led Zeppelin lyric: "Got no time to pack my bags, my foots outside the door / Got a date, I can't be late, for the high hopes hailla ball." (The Ocean; as long as Marshall and Jeffery are lining up wide, expect good things from this team)
Detroit Lions
Last year: 7-9, 3rd. 2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Giants, Cardinals (SOS: 16) Key acquisitions: WR Golden Tate, TE Eric Ebron (via draft), LB Kyle Van Noy (also via draft), S James Ihedigbo Key losses: DE Willie Young, S Louis Delmas
The story surrounding this team, as per usual, is its failure to live up to expectations. The Lions had a very strong start to the season: 6-3 in their first nine games, the three losses coming to two teams that made the playoffs (Packers, Bengals) and the Cardinals, who finished 10-6. And, of course, the entire team collapsed on itself, losing six of its last seven games, including losses to the lowly Ravens, Giants, and Vikings to finish the campaign. Excluding a 40-point outburst against the hapless Packers in Week 13, the Lions' offense scored 19.5 points per game, a far cry from the 26.4 points they averaged in the first half of the season.
The major issue was the inconsistency of QB Matthew Stafford, who both torched the stingy Bengals defense for 357 yards in Week 7 and threw two TDs against six INTs in the last four games of the season. Aside from majorly disappointing fantasy football players in their playoffs (sorry, fellow Stafford owners), Stafford failed to live up to what seems like an incredible potential, a function of both his raw talent and the fact that he has the best receiver in the game, Calvin Johnson, as a reliable target.
Detroit is hoping that some more weapons besides Johnson might encourage some improvement, and the team made two excellent moves to that end: signing Golden Tate and drafting Eric Ebron. Tate didn't exactly eat planets as the number-one receiver in Seattle, but not many pass catchers would excel given the extremely run-heavy play calling that powered the Seahawks' offense in 2013. He's the most capable receiver they've brought in to complement Johnson, and certainly seems like he'll be an improvement over the likes of Nate Burleson. Ebron, meanwhile, is just a rookie, but should be a part of the offense immediately following Brandon Pettigrew's underwhelming season.
New coach Jim Caldwell has said repeatedly that he wants to emphasize the run this season, which should also be a welcome change for the Lions given Stafford's ridiculous workload of late (attempted third-highest 634 passes in 2013, after setting the single-season record in 2012 with 727). It's also a move that Detroit can easily pull off, as they have two above-average running backs on their roster who can combine for an explosive ground attack. Reggie Bush has battled both injury and ball security problems, but overall was an excellent player for the Lions in 2013, racking up over 1,500 all-purpose yards. His teammate in the backfield, Joique Bell, brings some strength and exceptional pass-catching ability to the offense.
This offense is also anchored by a near-impenetrable line. They surrendered only 23 sacks, the second-best mark in football, and rookie OT Riley Reiff was the only starter that gave up more than one sack the whole season. They're also a deep unit: OT LaAdrian Waddle did not start but exceeded expectations after going undrafted in 2013, and the Lions spent a third-rounder on C Travis Swanson out of Arkansas in case starter Dominic Raiola shows to have lost a step at 36. With Tate, Ebron and Bell's contributions to the passing game, it's of vital importance that Stafford remains protected, and it seems like that will be the case in 2014.
The Lions' defense was good enough to keep the team in games last season, finishing in the middle of the pack in points allowed (15th), yards allowed (16th), and total defensive DVOA (14th). Those figures, however, are a tale of two defenses. Against the run, the Lions were excellent, giving up the sixth-fewest yards on the ground per game as well as finishing second in adjusted line yards, behind only Arizona. Detroit's struggles against the pass were what did them in; it's hard to maintain a lead when teams can run an effective offense in the air. The Lions were in the bottom third of pass defenses in yards per game, as well as fourth-worst in QB sacks. DTs Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley were acceptable in creating pressure on passers, but the ends and linebackers couldn't finish the job. Detroit will be looking to second-year DE Ziggy Ansah and rookie LB Kyle van Noy to bring that missing element to the defense, which is possible but by no means guaranteed.
The bigger issue with the pass defense was the secondary, and the Lions didn't do much to improve in that area. No corner on the roster is frankly worth his salt, and the acquisition of James Ihedigbo against the loss of Louis Delmas is basically an even swap at safety. For noticeable improvement on a very shaky secondary this season, Detroit will need a breakout season from either of their young corners, Darius Slay and Bill Bentley.
The Lions will win very few laughers with the pass defense's inability to keep desperate offenses down, but this is a talented enough team to perform well in 2014.
Player to watch: Ziggy Ansah. He recorded eight sacks in 2013, the most among rookies. If the pass rush is to take a step forward this year, it starts with him. 2014 projected finish: 9-7, 2nd. Led Zeppelin lyric: "Many have I loved / Many times been bitten / Many times I've gazed along the open road." (Over the Hills and Far Away; this fanbase has been told so many times that this is their year, they know better than anyone how dangerous it is to put too much faith in this team)
Minnesota Vikings
Last year: 5-10-1, 4th. 2014 schedule: NFC South, AFC East, Redskins, Rams (SOS: 21) Key acquisitions: QB Teddy Bridgewater (via draft), DT Linval Joseph, DE Corey Wootton, CB Captain Munnerlyn Key losses: RB Toby Gerhart, DT Kevin Williams, DE Jared Allen, a year of Adrian Peterson's legs
All the Minnesota offense really needed was a quarterback. The wide receiving corps is solid, with second-year WR Cordarrelle Patterson looking for a breakout campaign and veteran WR Greg Jennings serving as a "eh, could be worse" second option. The Vikings also brought Norv Turner on as offensive coordinator, which might mean big things for TE Kyle Rudolph: Turner's tight ends have a history of flourishing, most noticeably with Antonio Gates in San Diego and more recently with Jordan Cameron in Cleveland last year. The offensive line isn't so shabby either: they were bottom-10 in sacks allowed, but they were tenth best in run-blocking per adjusted line yards and figure to improve as OT Matt Kalil, who only gave up four sacks in 2013, enters his second year in the pros.
And that's all to say nothing of the most talented running back in the NFL. Adrian Peterson has missed some time in the past couple seasons due to injury as well as reached 2,000 career carries, but Peterson showed after returning from an ACL tear that the rules don't apply to him. He continued his dominance with 5.4 yards per carry in 2013, an unreal total considering opposing defenses' plan began and ended with "stop Adrian Peterson." The terrific run-blocking line only serves to create a more formidable ground game, which finished eighth in rushing yards last year. Slippery change-of-pace back Toby Gerhart has left to start in Jacksonville, but Peterson is more than capable of keeping the run game afloat this year.
To the end of filling that hole at quarterback, the Vikings traded down to draft Teddy Bridgewater out of Louisville with the last pick of the first round, a move that may prove to be an excellent value pick. Bridgewater is talented, has good vision, and looks like a player with a high ceiling and a high floor. At worst, he may turn out to be a league-average starter, which might be all that the Vikings need to eventually be a great offense.
Unfortunately, he's unlikely to reach that level this year. The star rookie QB is a rare commodity in the NFL, and the subpar pass blocking means Bridgewater might endure more hits than he'd like in his first year. With that in mind, Minnesota is likely to work him in under Matt Cassel this year, who's not great by any stretch of the imagination, but really ought to be at least a slim upgrade over the train wreck that Christian Ponder often was.
Unless Bridgewater blows us away this year, this offense will be pretty much the same middling group it was last year, but the future looks somewhat bright.
Things are also looking up for the Vikings' defense, since they really can't get any worse than they were in 2013. They were second-worst in yards allowed and gave up an unthinkable 30 points per game, dead last in the league. Allen and Williams are big losses on the line, but Minnesota did a commendable job of replacing them: Linval Joseph was a serious asset for the Giants, and Corey Wootton does good work in rushing the passer and defending the run.
The biggest problem for the Vikings, by far, was the secondary. Thankfully, they noticed how bad their back four were and did something about it. Simply by virtue of getting S Harrison Smith back from injury, the unit won't be as bad as it was last year. However, they also added Captain Munnerlyn following an impressive season with the Panthers to play across from Xavier Rhodes, the clear highlight of the secondary in his rookie year.
With the improvements on the back end of the defense, the linebacking corps are now the clear weak point. Their first round selection, Anthony Barr, is an unknown quantity but has the raw skills to be very good. The other linebackers, Chad Greenway and Jasper Brinkley, are at least known quantities, but they're known to be bad. Not much can be expected of this group in coverage or in stopping the run, but the Vikings are hoping that at least Barr will help with the pass rush.
While there are still a few more pieces that need to be put into place in Minnesota, time is really of the essence. Next season will bring the feared age-30 season for Peterson, and the Vikings will try to ride him to the playoffs. To that end, it's possible Bridgewater gets something of a trial by fire this year in the hope that he can help the team seriously contend in 2015.
Player to watch: Cordarrelle Patterson. No matter who the QB is in Minnesota, the team will depend on him to be a number-one WR, and his raw skills suggest he's very capable of meeting such expectations. If he succeeds, it'll be a big help for Bridgewater in his rookie year. 2014 projected finish: 5-11, 4th. Led Zeppelin lyric: "As the moon and the stars call the order / Inside my tides dance the ebb and sway / The sun in my soul's sinking lower / While the hope in my hands turns to clay." (Hots On For Nowhere; a poignantly relevant metaphor for how poor Adrian Peterson must feel about spending his prime in Minnesota)
My pick for the NFL's MVP in 2014 plays in our next division on Get the Led Out, the NFC South. 'Til next time.
Just as more Americans begin to embrace soccer following the excitement of the World Cup (including myself, go Hotspur), August brings us the reminder that, at the end of the day, we always ought to return to the real football: football. The one in which you can use your hands. The one in which if you get knocked down, you better get your ass right back up and chase after the ball. The one in which your season is all but over if you lose your first 4 games.
By a wide margin, football is the most variable popular sport. After a 162-game baseball season and multi-game playoff series, you can have some confidence in saying that the World Series champion is the best team in baseball. Football, meanwhile, is a 16-game season, and a team plays a maximum of four playoff games. Even within those games, the result can come down to uncontrollable circumstances; the best and worst players have exactly the same chance to recover a fumble, and it depends solely on where the football decides to bounce. For this reason, football is arguably the most difficult sport to predict.
But we'll do it anyway.
In these previews, I'll cover a single division, and then a look into the playoffs when I reach the last team in the conference. Today, it's the NFC East. For each team, I'll include an overview of the 2014 schedule outside the team's own division as well as the strength of schedule (SOS) rank, some big offseason moves, and a player to keep an eye on with a short preview and a record/finish prediction. Finally, to help capture the essence of a team's attitude heading into this season, I'll turn to the lyrical workings of Robert Plant, the vocalist for the best band of all time, Led Zeppelin.
[Quick note: there are a few advanced stats beyond yards, points and wins that I'll be referencing in this article to get a more complete sense of a team's past and future performance. The important ones include Defensive-adjusted Value over Average, or DVOA (basically efficiency, or how well a team does on a per-play basis), estimated wins (adjusts actual win total based on consistency and DVOA in key game situations against a league-average schedule), and Pythagorean wins (adjusts win total based on a team's point differential). For more on how these figures are calculated, check out Football Outsiders' website.]
Philadelphia Eagles
Last year: 10-6 record, 1st in division 2014 schedule: NFC West, AFC South, Packers, Panthers (SOS: 20th toughest) Key offseason acquisitions:RB Darren Sproles, S Malcolm Jenkins, CB Nolan Carroll Key losses:WR DeSean Jackson
Philly has put together one of the more frightening offenses in the NFL. Most strikingly, it revolves mostly around the run game, a characteristic not shared with the rest of the league's top offenses. Last year, the Eagles had a terrific run-blocking offensive line, facilitating a league-leading 5.02 yards per carry for their backs. Though it's true that most running backs can succeed behind a good line, the line does not tell the whole story: LeSean McCoy is not "most" backs. Shady is tough but (more importantly in a Chip Kelly offense) elusive, and his manipulation of the gaping holes left by his offensive line earned him the most yards of any NFL running back by an unreal 268 yards. Meanwhile, the underrated signing of Darren Sproles away from New Orleans brings a very dangerous pass-catching dimension to the backfield of an offense that was already the third most efficient in the league, per DVOA.
The passing game, meanwhile, was similarly fantastic, but is certainly due for regression. QB Nick Foles lost a key downfield weapon in DeSean Jackson, and the team is basically depending on Jeremy Maclin to return from his ACL tear and fill that role. Maclin might be a star: in 2012, Maclin outgained and outscored Jackson on vertical passing. That said, his injury is a difficult to fully recover from, and Kelly will have to keep his expectations in check.
The other receiving options leave much to be desired: Riley Cooper and TE Zach Ertz where somewhat solid but inconsistent cogs last year, and Brent Celek is transitioning into more of a blocking end than a receiving end.
Lastly, Foles himself was one of the best quarterbacks in the league when he played, starting in Week 9 when he took the starting job from an injured Michael Vick. The Eagles, having started 3-5, finished on a 7-1 tear as Foles threw 27 TDs against an unbelievable two interceptions. I do mean unbelievable, and usually in football, "unbelievable" means "unsustainable." The league-average interception rate is 3.89%, meaning that the average quarterback throws an interception on just under four percent of his passes. Second on that list among qualified QBs is Alex Smith, famous for his conservative, good-decision-oriented play style, with a 1.4% mark. Tied for third at 1.5% were Sam Bradford (whose 6.4 yards per attempt highlight an offense thriving on short, easy, checkdown passes) and Peyton Manning, the league's MVP.
Nick Foles' interception rate last year was 0.6%, first in the game by a significant margin. Foles might be good, but he's not that good; no one is. The Eagles' offense will still be a points and yards machine, but expect some regression, at least in the passing game.
Kelly, in coming to Philly, brought the entirety of his Pac-12 tradition: high-flying offenses, and defenses that will keep their opponents in the game until the bitter end. The Eagles surrendered 6,304 yards, the fourth worst mark in the league, and stood as the 23rd-ranked defense in efficiency. Against the run, the Eagles were competent, allowing a 10th-best 104.3 yards per game.
The pass defense is a totally different story. The Birds gave up just under 290 yards per game in the air, making up the worst pass D in football. Their problem was twofold, stemming from subpar play in both pass rush and the secondary. There was some improvement in the latter: the Eagles signed two low-risk, moderate-reward players in Jenkins and Carroll, just the guys they needed to bolster a secondary that simply couldn't get any worse than it was last year. The pass rush, meanwhile, is still inordinately dependent on LB Trent Cole, who registered a solid 8 sacks last season but cannot carry the unit on his own. DE Fletcher Cox is a fantastic player and will get his, but the rest of the front seven, especially LB Mychal Kendricks and DE Cedric Thornton, are strong against the run but overall minuses in pass D. This unit should not be as god-awful as it was last year, but even reaching the top 20 would be a stretch.
Player to watch: Zach Ertz. The Eagles need him to improve his receiving game from a disappointing 2013, and his success or failure on that front changes the character of the offense: a solid target coming off the line would be a huge help for Foles as he tries to recreate his 2013 performance. 2014 projected finish: 11-5, 1st in division Led Zeppelin lyric: "You are the sunlight in my growing / So little warmth I've felt before / It isn't hard to feel me glowing / I watched the fire that grew so low." (The Rain Song; apparently about Chip Kelly)
Dallas Cowboys
Last year: 8-8, 2nd. 2014 schedule: NFC West, AFC South, Bears, Saints (SOS: 18) Key acquisitions: OT Zack Martin (via draft) Key losses: DE DeMarcus Ware, DT Jason Hatcher, LB Sean Lee (injury), CB Orlando Scandrick (Molly)
As big of a discrepancy as there is between the Eagles' offense and defense, the Cowboys' was arguably even greater, and will almost definitely be larger in 2014.
Let's start with the good news. Even as Miles Austin faded into obscurity as a viable target, the Dallas offense was very good. They were middling in total yards gained, but got themselves on the board: their 439 points were fifth-most in the league and only one TD from second-most (Denver had by far the most with 606). Dallas have some stars (if you mind the pun) at the various skill positions: Dez Bryant is one of the most explosive receiver in the league, DeMarco Murray is a top-10 back when healthy, and Jason Witten continues to be a consistent if not flashy pass-catcher. Tony Romo, meanwhile, despite popular opinion, is a very good quarterback. He has a less-than-inspiring playoff track record, which colors public perception and leads people to blame him for losses, including their 51-48 shootout against the Broncos. His 2013 was impressive, throwing 31 TDs (2 more than pass-happy Matt Stafford) against only 10 INTs (same as MVP Peyton Manning).
The offensive line is also much improved, moving in just 5 years from a weakness to potentially one of the more formidable units in the league. Dallas posted the fourth-best total last year in adjusted line yards, which measures the ability of an offensive line to facilitate good runs by backs. The fact that super-talented draftee Zack Martin is fighting for a starting position shows how spoiled Dallas really is on this front. Murray's talent combined with this line is a scary ground game, and many defenses (including even those in the NFC West, I think) are going to struggle to stop the Cowboys.
But none of that matters if Dallas gives up a thousand points per game, which somehow doesn't seem outside of the realm of possibility. Last year, the defense gave up a league-worst 6,645 yards, worse than the next defense (Vikings) by nearly 300 yards. The phrase "historically bad" is thrown around a lot, usually to describe Jacksonville, but it's actually appropriate talking about the 2013 Cowboys: those 6,645 yards are the third-most given up in a single season in NFL history. Those 439 points we were talking about earlier on offense? Fifth-most in the league? The 'Boys only outscored their opponents by a single touchdown.
And somehow, this disgusting, revolting unit is setting the bar at depths never thought possible. They lost their two best players, Ware and Hatcher, to free agency, stripping their defensive line of any tangible value beyond cast-off injury risks Anthony Spencer and Henry Melton.
And yet, the line is arguably the best part of this defense! The one solid linebacker they had, Sean Lee, is out for the year with a torn ACL. The already too-awful-to-even-watch secondary took a big hit earlier this week when Orlando Scandrick received a 4-game suspension for using MDMA (two of their first four games are against the 49ers and the Saints. Don't let young children watch those games). Beyond Scandrick, the secondary is a mess, now consisting of cap-space-drainer Brandon Carr, disappointment JJ Wilcox, Barry Church, and train wreck Morris Claiborne.
Long story short, the offense is excellent, the defense is atrocious, and both are trending towards more extreme versions of their 2013 selves. First team to 50 points will win every Cowboys game this year.
Player to watch: Zack Martin. An excellent pick for Dallas, and it'll be exciting to see if he pans out and helps the Cowboys develop a run game. 2014 projected finish: 8-8, 2nd. For those keeping track at home, this would be the fourth consecutive 8-8 season for America's Team. Led Zeppelin lyric: "Walking in the park just the other day, baby / What do you, what do you think I saw? / Crowds of people sitting on the grass with flowers in their hair, said / 'Hey boy, do you wanna score?'" (Misty Mountain Hop; illustrating the Cowboys' defensive strategy)
New York Giants
Last year: 7-9, 3rd. 2014 schedule: NFC West, AFC South, Lions, Falcons (SOS: T-26) Key acquisitions: RB Rashad Jennings, G Geoff Schwartz, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB Walter Thurmond, WR Odell Beckham (via draft) Key losses: RB Andre Brown, WR Hakeem Nicks, OT David Diehl, G Kevin Boothe, C David Baas, DE Justin Tuck, DT Linval Joseph, CB Aaron Ross, G Chris Snee (retired), RB David Wilson (career-ending injury), any sense of consistency
I mean, just look at all of that. There's almost nothing to be gained from looking at the 2013 Giants, because it's barely the same team. The most extensive overhaul is clearly on the offensive line: after enjoying excellent consistency (if not stellar play) on the line, it's basically all fallen apart at once: Baas, Diehl, Snee, and Boothe were all starters, and the Giants had to struggle to replace them. Schwartz is a solid acquisition, coming from the Chiefs' second best run-blocking line, but the rest of the purported starting line is mediocre to bad. This especially doesn't bode well for improving on Eli Manning's downright crappy 2013, in which New York's favorite Goofy Goober threw only 18 TDs against a whopping 27 INTs while taking a career-high 39 sacks.
The rest of the offense has also undergone serious change. The two running backs with the most carries last year, Wilson and Brown, are both out of town for various reasons (pour one out for David Wilson's career), and now New York is depending on Jennings, a guy who backed up such illustrious names as Maurice Jones-Drew and no one else before being pretty okay for Oakland last year.
The offensive weaponry is also on the downturn, as the Giants lost a talented, if oft-injured, Nicks and have no tight end to speak of. That said, Eli could do far worse than WRs Victor Cruz, Reuben Randle, and rookie Odell Beckham. In fact, the running game was truly to blame for the Giants' bottom-5 2013 offense, in fact the second-worst per DVOA. The Giants gained 3588 yards in the air last year, 19th in the league, which ain't bad considering how many possessions ended in the hands of the other team.
And the passing game is poised to get a little bit better, simply because Manning's 27 interceptions won't happen again, even behind a totally new offensive line. Per the bad decision rating, or BDR metric, only three those 27 could be attributed to a lapse in judgement on Manning's part. That means the other 24 were a result of things like, yes, receiver errors, but also tipped passes and otherwise bad luck, which often doesn't persist from season to season.
The Giants' defense was much better than their offense, and it was a major part of what rescued them from an 0-6 start. They gave up 332.3 yards per game, the eighth-best total in football, and were ranked the sixth most efficient defense on a per-play basis. The departures of Tuck and Joseph and the failure of the Giants to adequately replace them exposes the front as an obvious weak point of the defense, but the secondary has arguably improved with the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. DRC was very good for Denver last year, and should more than make up for the loss of Ross and Terrell Thomas, who has seen very little field action due to injury. Stevie Brown returning from injury and taking his place opposite DRC (combined with signing of former Seahawk CB Walter Thurmond) makes for a fairly good cover secondary that might be able to keep this team in games.
The offensive line and defensive front seven are weak spots, but there's reason to believe that the other half of this team (secondary, offensive skill players) are on an upswing. Could this push the Giants to improvement on their 7-9 record? Probably not, but mostly because the Giants were nowhere near a 7-win team last year. Keep in mind that their 7-3 finish to the year saw the defense feasting on multiple rookie, backup, or bad QBs, including Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, Terrelle Pryor, and Scott Tolzein. Both estimated wins and Pythagorean wins peg the Giants as closer to a 5-win team. Asking a true 5-win team with this much overhaul up and down the roster to improve to even .500 is a tall order, and one I regret to say the Giants probably won't meet this year.
Player to watch: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. He is now unquestionably the best defensive player for the Giants, and it'll be interesting to see how he handles that role. 2014 projected finish: 6-10, 3rd. Led Zeppelin lyric: "If the sun refused to shine / I would still be loving you / When mountains crumble to the sea / There will still be you and me." (Thank You; just because I think you'll go 6-10 doesn't mean I love you any less, Giants. Go Big Blue)
Washington Redskins
Last year: 3-13, 4th. 2014 schedule: NFC West, AFC South, Vikings, Buccaneers (SOS: 17) Key acquisitions: WR DeSean Jackson, DT Jason Hatcher, S Ryan Clark Key losses: C Will Montgomery
The 2013 Redskins will stand for a long time as a cautionary tale against rushing your star player back from injury. QB Robert Griffin III had an ugly knee injury in the 2012 playoffs, and subsequently took it easy in the preseason, avoiding contact and not playing a single game minute. It quickly became clear in the regular season that Griffin was struggling to fully recover, completing only 58% of his passes, throwing eight picks and committing three fumbles in his first eight games. He's certainly due for some improvement: outside of the NFC West, Washington faces some swiss-cheese-esque pass defenses, and this year Griffin is at full strength and participating in camp.
The addition of DeSean Jackson to the team also suggests some improvement in the passing game. The Redskins had almost no vertical passing game in 2013, and new OC Jay Gruden (who's spent the last couple years with Andy Dalton and AJ Green in Cincy) is going to push for one. This explosive variation should be welcome for a team that gained the eighth-most yards but scored only the 23rd-most points (and finished as the 23rd most efficient offense per DVOA). Jackson is perhaps the best vertical specialist in the league (especially with Josh aka "Kush" Gordon suspended), burning DBs in running long routes and averaging a scorching 16.2 yards per catch. He'll complement a receiving corps highlighted by Pierre Garcon and TE Jordan Reed for a solid Washington arsenal.
The run game meanwhile, might see some big changes in philosophy with pass-happy Gruden at the helm. Alfred Morris is still the feature back, but he's shown himself to be more of a two-down guy and definitely not a pass-catcher. The Redskins may look to increase Roy Helu's role to catch passes out of the backfield, a offensive dimension that Griffin hasn't had at his disposal.
The big question mark in the way of this offense taking a big step forward is the line, which gave up 43 sacks last year and took a big hit losing Montgomery to the Broncos. They looked to address this need in the draft, taking the raw OT Morgan Moses and the rehabilitating G Spencer Long. If these guys don't step up and become big impact players in their first season, it'll be another scary season for Griffin.
Problems on offense notwithstanding, this team is not going to improve on their 2013 season if they give up 478 points again, tied with Minnesota for the second-worst mark in football. The pass rush was a highlight last year, and there's nothing that seems to suggest a big drop off. DT Barry Cofield and LBs Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan are already excellent at putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and the team signed DT Jason Hatcher (11 sacks in 2013) away from the division rival Cowboys to bolster this unit even more. Meanwhile, the front seven was solid against the run, allowing only 3.58 adjusted line yards per carry, the sixth-lowest figure in the league. However, their actual run yards allowed (1,769, 17th in the league) ties into the secondary's inability to support the front lines. The back four is easily the biggest weakness for the Redskins, and is chock-full of players who are either bad or, like new signee Ryan Clark from the Steelers, past their primes. The one player who might be able to improve is CB David Amerson, who's only 22 and has time to develop his game. Nearly every other player for this secondary is 30 or older, so don't expect a real renaissance for this unit. The Redskins are clearly banking on the strength of their pass rush and attacking up front to keep them in games, because no one behind is going to bail them out.
This team will not lose 13 games again. The team did a good job in the offseason of adding to its strengths, and those should be able to overcome the known quantities of the offensive line and the secondary to an extent. Moreover, the Redskins actually underperformed last year: estimated wins pegged them as a 4.2-win team, while Pythagorean wins had them at an even better 4.8. Both of these factors, combined with Griffin's improved health, will win them more games and put them on the right track for 2015. But for now, they stay in the cellar of a pretty weak division.
Player to watch: Roy Helu. If he succeeds in running and pass catching the way that Gruden likely wants him to, Griffin has a huge weight off his shoulders and opposing defenses will have a lot more to handle. 2014 projected finish: 6-10, 4th. Led Zeppelin lyric: "Someone pushed a gun into my hand / Tell me I'm the type of man to fight the fight that I'll require." (Night Flight; go wild with that vertical game, RG3.)
Next time on Get the Led Out: the NFC North. Stay tuned, boys and girls.
With
World Cup fever in full swing, many in the United States are becoming immersed
in soccer for the first time. However, with the World Cup drawing to an end,
the interest in soccer, specifically Major League Soccer, is also starting to
cool. Major League Soccer (MLS) has always faced an uphill climb in the United
States. While the average attendance of MLS games ranked third behind the National
Football League and Major League Baseball, the total attendance of MLS games
paled in comparison to the National Basketball League and the National Hockey
League. As such, MLS gets very little national attention. I can count on one
hand how many times I have seen SportsCenter give MLS more than a passing
glance in their national run-down. I
cannot say I blame them: More people want to know what LeBron James ate for
breakfast this morning than how the New York Red Bulls did last night in their
clash against the Columbus Crew. It is a simple case of supply and demand, and
there is simply no supply.
Before
I really get into this, I just want to make one thing clear: This article is
not about how more Americans need to support MLS. This is not about proving
wrong the idea that MLS is “watered down” soccer. This is about something
special happening in MLS, specifically in Salt Lake. This is about an
American-born playmaker turning down the likes of Arsenal to sign with an MLS
team. This is about a midfielder being technically gifted with absurd
potential. This is about Luis Gil.
If you
haven’t heard of Luis Gil, there is nothing to be embarrassed about. He plays
in a small market in MLS, a death sentence for national name exposure. Pop in
his tape, however, and you can see why Gil has so many National team officials
drooling over his game. Gil is a creative and dynamic playmaker who plays as a
classic number 10. Gil can make every pass and has the ability to slice up any
defense with his excellent vision. While not a speedster like Deandre Yedlin,
he has speed to burn which allows him to be a deadly counterattacking weapon. While
not a goal scorer, he has shown an impressive ability to score when needed, as
he netted five goals last year for Real Salt Lake. His shot is like a rocket
coming off his right foot. While he is a bit on the shorter side at 5 foot 9' (as compared to the average midfielder size of 5 foot 10’ ½), he simply looks
the part of a star midfielder and has the brains and skills to back it up. He
is a complete offensive package, a 5 foot 9 dynamo donning Claret and Cobalt.
So, by
now, I am sure you are wondering why Luis Gil was not on the plane to Brazil
helping the United States scratch and claw out of the Group of Death. Well, for
starters, Gil is still young and incredibly raw. At the tender age of 20, Gil
is not even legally old enough to purchase an alcoholic beverage. While youth
and raw ability can still prove successful on the world stage (see Yedlin,
Deandre and Green, Julian), putting too much on a player too fast can stifle a
player’s growth (see Adu, Freddie). The small market of Salt Lake City and his
former coach Jason Kreis have largely shielded Gil from national hype. To be
exposed so quickly to such large amounts of pressure could be a shock to the
system from which a young player like Gil never recovers. In addition, Gil is
still developing his game to become a complete midfielder. Coming up in the
youth system, Gil was told to attack, attack, attack. However, on the world
stage, such an attitude is simply not feasible. He needs to be able to drop
back and defend when needed so that he can spearhead deadly counterattacks. In
short, Gil is young. Really young. And youth needs to develop before it can be
properly unleashed. In Brazil, the United States National
Team put Michael Bradley, a holding midfielder at his best going box-to-box, in
this playmaking role and he struggled mightily. I have the utmost belief that
Russia 2018 will see a different attacking midfielder crack the starting XI, one
that will make Bradley’s struggles a thing of the past. He will take the national
scene by storm and he is the next big thing in world soccer. So, go ahead and
jump on the bandwagon now. I promise it will be worth it. We have a star among
us. His name is Luis Gil. We just don’t know about him. Yet.
Yesterday, news broke that LeBron James intends on returning to Cleveland to play for the Cavaliers; the Prodigal Son has returned to his father's house. Of course, we also got to see the interim, and saw that the father actually burned all his memorabilia of the son and publicly stuck out his middle finger at him for his disgusting betrayal. But really, it's the beginning and ending that are important.
This heartwarming news (depending on who you are--but really it should be heartwarming to everyone with a heart), combined with the news that Kevin Love is "intrigued" by the prospect of joining James on the Cavs, likely brings Cleveland sports fans an emotion they're very unfamiliar with: joy. James instantly turns the Cavs from a team desperate for an 8 seed in the pathetic East into a legitimate title contender: 4-1 favorites in Vegas, over the 5-1 Spurs and the 6-1 Thunder.
Amazingly, that's not all a Cleveland fan has to be optimistic about. The Browns have been a team that just seems on the cusp of putting it all together for the past couple of years, and by fleecing the Colts in the Trent Richardson trade in the middle of the 2013 campaign, they got themselves the draft picks they needed to get help in the secondary (CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State with the 8th pick) and, of course, a potential franchise QB in Johnny Manziel. With the Steelers and Ravens crumbling around them, and a very limited group of teams with even wild-card potential, the Browns have not had a door to the playoffs this wide open in a long time.
Unfortunately, we all have to keep in mind the one unshakeable truth about Cleveland sports: God hates them. God hates them with a passion so evident and far-reaching that we have no choice but to turn it into a punchline simply to cope with it. James' return and the drafting of Manziel are great gifts, but let's take a page out of the book of wisdom that is South Park:
Usually I'd say Chef's theology is pretty shaky here, but when it comes to Cleveland, all bets are very much off: it's not impossible that all of this is just God teasing Cleveland, just so he can take it all away. With that in mind, here's how the next twelve months of sports in the Cleve will turn out:
July 2014
Shortly following the jubilation surrounding James' decision to return, the Timberwolves reach an apparently-lopsided agreement with the Cavs, sending Love to Cleveland in exchange for a protected first-round pick in 2026, a tote bag from the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame, the cash in Dan Gilbert's wallet (a lone $10 bill), and Anthony Bennett. Adam Silver allows the trade despite pressure to veto, only because he wants to see Gilbert's face of disgust when he has to reach into his wallet for the money only to give it to Flip Saunders. The Cavaliers' title odds increase to 2.5-1.
Inspired by the news, outfielder and lone Indians All-Star representative Michael Brantley goes 6-for-6, including a 490-foot home run off of Clayton Kershaw, carrying the American League to a dominant 11-3 win. Derek Jeter, leaving in the 5th inning having gone 1-for-2 with a walk and an error, is named the MVP.
Immediately following the All-Star break, Joe Maddon and the Rays' management begins to lose its collective mind as they drop their first three games to the Twins in Minnesota. Out of nowhere, they shop David Price, and end up trading him to the Indians to, according to Maddon "make the other wild card teams earn their damn spots." When asked about how he feels about the trade, Price says, "Well, with all the news that's been circulating this month, it's clear the Cleve is the best place to be." His words reverberate throughout all of Ohio, finding their way onto every sports page. He and Corey Kluber are an unexpected one-two punch in a pitching staff that was in the bottom 5 of nearly every category.
In the midst of the celebration, Roger Goodell suspends Josh Gordon for the entire season and forces him to write a 5,000 word essay reflecting on the people besides himself harmed by his habits, but no one notices.
August 2014
After a disappointing week of camp for Johnny Manziel full of sacks, he finally hears that Gordon has been suspended. Manziel, having a less-than-functional phone, never received the information, and so took countless sacks while looking for an open Gordon, since he figured Gordon would be his number-one option. When told of the reasons for his suspension, Manziel's reply of "Really? For that?" triggers old concerns about his character which permeate the camp.
Meanwhile, the Indians are riding an incredible win streak. Their offense (currently 6th in runs scored and 10th in OPS) remains unsexy but consistent. Newcomer David Price throws his hat into the Cy Young and even MVP discussion, boasting a 2.10 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP in the second half. They pass the Yankees, White Sox, Mariners, and Orioles with ease en route to the 2nd spot for the wild card, behind the Angels. Terry Francona is lauded as one of the best managers in the game. Every day the Indians are not playing, Francona picks a street corner in Boston on which to stand and remind everyone they fired his ass for Bobby Valentine.
The Browns begin their preseason games. Manziel arrives at least two hours late to each one. For the first three, he comes prepared with different poorly-photoshopped pictures of himself with Candice Swanepoel at a party to show to head coach Mike Pettine, explaining that he had a conflict the previous night that "hung over" into game day, "if you know what I mean, chief." For the fourth and final preseason game, he arrives midway through the second quarter with a filming crew and runs straight on to the field during a play. Manziel explains to the refs that he's shooting a commercial as part of his Nike endorsement deal, and wants actual game footage to go with it. He gives each ref a satchel of money with a big dollar sign printed on it and runs to the line of scrimmage to run a play. Taking the snap, he immediately steps back and launches a pass forty yards in the air to no one, then jogs to the camera and yells, "Just do it, bitch!" He proudly declares the shoot a wrap and exits the stadium via helicopter, piloted by Candice Swanepoel.
September 2014
The month starts off poorly as Mike Pettine declares Brian Hoyer the starting QB, telling the media through gritted teeth that Manziel can learn behind him. The decision is not well-received by the Cleveland public, but many are still caught up in the whirlwind of the Indians' second half play. They still trail the Tigers in the AL Central, but have surpassed the Angels for the top wild-card spot. Neither team ever leads the other in the wild-card standings by more than 3 games, so the entire city of Cleveland along with the country is on the edge of its seat, waiting to see what happens. Incredibly, the entire offense enters a massive slump at the same time. Over their final 13 games (4 in Houston, 3 each against Minnesota, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay), the Indians score 9 runs and hit .198 as a team, going 2-11 in the process and ceding the second wild-card spot to their division rival Royals. In the final game of the season, in Tampa Bay, the three prospects Cleveland sent in the Price trade combine for a 10-of-12 hitting night off of Price himself. Francona is called into a meeting with owner Lawrence Dolan's office and immediately breaks down and weeps when he sees Bobby Valentine waiting in the chair next to Dolan, cackling. Francona is fired.
In the home opener against the Saints, the crowd chants "Johnny Football" following a Hoyer incompletion on 1st and 10. The pressure builds throughout the game, and the Saints' mounting lead only serves to intensify the crowd's demands. Towards the end of the third quarter, Pettine finally makes the switch to Manziel. After two near-interceptions and three delays of game, Manziel completes a third-down 4-yard pass to Jordan Cameron, who takes it 68 yards for a score. The crowd restarts its "Johnny Football" chant as Manziel does his signature "money" celebration and is flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct.
Kevin Love exits the Rock-and-Roll Hall of Fame, thinking about all the things he could have done instead that day.
October 2014
The Cavaliers' preseason begins, and it's just as good as everyone hoped. Kyrie-James and Kyrie-Love pick-and-rolls are unstoppable. Subsequently, the first quarter of every Cavs preseason game becomes must-see television. The Walking Dead makes its anticipated return, but it is unluckily scheduled at the same time as a Cavs game. The show's viewership reaches an all-time low. Dan Gilbert posts a Comic Sans open letter once again declaring that the Cavs will win a championship before the Heat. Incensed, Pat Riley urges Erik Spoelstra to work his players even harder. Dwyane Wade, having aged fifteen years in the offseason, very clearly struggles to keep up with the pace, and is deemed a "role player" by nearly every Miami media outlet.
The Browns plow through a relatively soft month of games, going 4-0 against the Titans, Steelers, Jaguars, and Raiders, improving to 5-2 with losses to the Steelers in Pittsburgh and the Saints. Having already improved on last year's 4-12 record, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is hailed as a genius and Manziel is the best thing to happen to the city since LeBron. By the end of the month, Manziel's jersey is already the best-selling jersey in Browns history.
Bobby Valentine is hired as the Indians' manager, assuring that things will be different this time.
November 2014
The Browns' success train loses steam as they trudge through a 2-3 month that sees seven interceptions and four Manziel fumbles, each a result of his attempt at the Heisman pose while running downfield. Victories against the lowly Bucs and Bills keep them atop the division, tied with the Ravens but possessing the head-to-head tiebreaker. Nonetheless, in response to the rough month, Manziel demands the team pursue wide receivers in free agency. Following the win on November 30th against the Bills, Manziel refuses to play in the next game against the Colts unless the team finds him a number-one option besides tight end Cameron, who is, according to Manziel, "really a bore."
Meanwhile, the Cavs open their season 15-1, the one loss coming against the Bulls in Chicago by four points. In the team's first game against the Heat in Miami, both James and Love register triple-doubles in an absolute dismantling of the Heat. Chris Bosh leads the Heat with 11 points, and Michael Beasley is the only Heat player to touch the ball inbounds in the entire fourth quarter. The entire night is very confusing for everyone, as the Heat fans don't realize that they're not supposed to cheer when LeBron scores anymore.
December 2014
In the week before Game 13 against the Colts, the Browns sign free agent WR Terrell Owens, who was really the only pass catcher in free agency who met Manziel's "star power" requirement. The defensive line for every Browns opponent throughout the month reports hearing Manziel saying "where's T-O, where's T-O" to himself before taking a sack. Despite the troubles behind the line, Manziel averages 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing per game. He leads the Browns to an 8-7 record going into their final regular season game against the Ravens, the winner of which goes to the playoffs as the second wild-card team. The game is flexed to Sunday Night Football, where the entire nation watches as the Ravens win a real nail-biter by a score of 42-3. In the fourth quarter, with the game well out of hand, Pettine subs Brian Hoyer in for Manziel, the latter leaving to cheers despite having thrown four interceptions. Hoyer finishes the game on a field-goal drive (Cleveland's only points) in which he gains 40 yards in the air on 3-of-4 passing. On his way to the bench, Manziel slaps Hoyer in the back, telling him "oh well, you'll get 'em next time." Terrell Owens disappears into a cornfield in Iowa.
The Cavaliers, now the Cleve's only hope of making the playoffs in the first year post-post-LeBron, are still rolling at 25-3, each loss coming by five points or less. Andrew Wiggins is earning his title as the first overall draft pick and his spot on the team, averaging a double-double per game. The starting five of Irving-Wiggins-James-Love-Varejao is the most efficient group of players in the league on offense. Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayless debate whether a dynasty is on the horizon. ESPN shoots a "This is SportsCenter" commercial with Wiggins in full cavalier regalia, wielding a sword and all, dueling a frightened Scott Van Pelt. In short, there has been no better time to be a Cavs fan.
January 2015
At a New Years' Party, Manziel is reported to have asked to anyone who would listen "what the frack is a 'brown' anyway? The only thing I can think of that's brown is my shit! And chocolate. And that guy's shirt, and some desks? Oh, and a football! Johnny Football's here, biznitch-ass-douches!" The video (because someone's got a video going any time Manziel's around) goes viral as the Cleveland population turns against Manziel. Candice Swanepoel goes into witness protection. Manziel is traded to the Jets for three draft picks, because the Browns don't know how to do anything except rebuild.
In a historic NBA moment, each of the Cavs starters receives the most votes for the All-Star Game starting positions, highlighting the fans' demand to see the team play more often. Every Cavs game for the rest of the year is flexed on to a national network. When this news breaks, NBATV and NBA League Pass subscriptions drop 50%, and ESPN sets Super Bowl-level prices for commercials during the games.
February 2015
The East All-Stars (whom the stadium announcer accidentally calls the Cavaliers) demolish the West in the All-Star Game. Every time a Cleveland player is subbed out, boos and hisses rain from the rafters. Immediately following the All-Star break, ESPN debuts the CavHaven, your network for all things Cavaliers, with subscriptions available for $200 a month. Despite the unusually high price, an estimated 50 million households purchase the package. Its programming consists solely of Cavs games, replays of Cavs games, the episode of First Take previously mentioned, and Star Wars-style scrolling through James' letter of intent to return to the Cavs, put to the song "I'm Coming Home."
March 2015
The Cavs keep winning, blah blah blah.
April 2015
The Indians' season has started, and thankfully everyone is too hyped up on the Cavs to notice that they start 4-15. New manager Bobby Valentine cites clubhouse chemistry issues.
The NBA playoffs begin midway through the month, with the Cavs having clinched the top seed in the playoffs long ago. Their first series, interestingly enough, is against the Heat, who fought into the playoffs with a .500 record. The series itself is a story rich in potential, but Cleveland is simply too good to bring an entertainment factor equal to that potential. The Cavs win in three. Not because the league shifts to a best-of-5 first round, but because the NBA decides it has a moral obligation to not inflict the human beings on the Heat and the human beings who root for them (the few that are left) any more pain than is necessary. Pat Riley forlornly deletes the draft of a Comic Sans letter he considered posting on Miami's website.
May 2015
The Cavs' second round opponent is the 4-seed Pacers. In all four press conferences, some member of the Pacers tells the media something along the lines of "we couldn't beat him when the rest of his team sucked, how are we supposed to beat him now?" In the final game of the series, the Cavs beat up on a hopeless Indy team, 113-46. Lance Stephenson scores 44 points for the Pacers, the other two coming on a lazy Hibbert putback of a Stephenson miss.
In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bulls put up the best fight we've seen all season against the Cavs. For some stretches, Derrick Rose appears to be the best player on the court, and Pau Gasol plays with a vigor never seen throughout his career. Joakim Noah is a beast in the paint for Chicago, grabbing nearly 10 rebounds a game and preventing easy points in the paint on defense. The Cavs win in five.
On their way into the locker room, the Cavs are taken aback by the old booing crone from Princess Bride, who emerges from the crowd and reminds them that they still play for Cleveland, and that none of this is meant to last.
Bow down to the city of slime! The city of filth!
June 2015
The Cavs meet their Finals opponents, the Minnesota Timberwolves, emerging from the depths of the Western Conference and defeating both the Thunder and the Spurs in the playoffs. Their miracle season, lost in the Cavs hype, was due in large part to career years from Rubio, Martin, and Pekovic, but most importantly from recently-acquired asset Anthony Bennett (remember him?) from the Love trade. The higher latitudes of Minnesota were all Bennett needed to unlock his full potential, averaging 19 points, 9 rebounds, and a ridonkulous 4 blocks per game.
To the horror of Ohio and the rest of the nation, the series goes to a Game 7 in Cleveland. In the biggest underdog story since the American Revolution, the T-Wolves off LeBron's Cavs behind a quadruple-double by Anthony Bennett, only the 5th such occurrence in NBA history, and win the title. One of Bennett's 12 blocks comes on James' potential game-tying jumper as time expires. The game will be heralded as one of the best basketball games ever played, but everyone is far too broken up about the result to recognize it immediately. Afterwards, James sits for a press conference only to announce his continued devotion to the team, wipe a tear away, and leave. Love, on the other hand, realizes that the move from Minnesota to Cleveland was, quality-wise, a pretty lateral move, and signs with the Miami Heat the very day he becomes a free agent. The same day, Jesus Christ descends from the clouds and appears in Cleveland. He declares to the masses, "This isn't the Second Coming, just wanted to tell you guys you've officially been punked!" Jesus doubles over guffawing, pointing to the wound in his side to show everyone that "he was actually splitting his sides laughing." The laughter continues as he ascends back up to heaven. James instantly opts out of his 2-year contract and signs with the Heat.
Thursday night's draft, purported to be the best and deepest in years, generated so much hype that the teaser aired just before the first pick was about "the hype" and how the players are more than the hype. (We'll get back to this commercial later). This past NFL draft was similar; there was a lot of talent condensed at the top, and no one really knew which way it was all going to break. All the speculation and theorizing about the eventual draft order, the debate over the true best prospect, and the questions surrounding whether the Cavs were just going to Cleveland things up again like they did in 2013 essentially went straight into the trash as we watched a largely predictable draft, save for just a few spots.
While I doubt this draft will live up to the standard set in 2003, will likely go down as one of the most important drafts in recent memory. It is the sports fan's duty, then, to come up with his own evaluation of the picks, so that, at least once, when a early pick is a bust or a late pick is an All-Star, he can say the all-important words, "called it." Let's take a look at the first round, pick-by-pick:
1. CLE--SG Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
Brazil was a popular choice to win the 2014 World Cup; they're a great team, and they're the host country. (Stick with me on this analogy here.) But that's too obvious for some people. So they come up with their own theories about who will win. How about reigning champ Spain? Stomped 5-1 by the Dutch. Okay, how about the Netherlands? Squeaking by Australia doesn't look like a championship move, nor does Argentina needing more than 90 minutes to score against Iran (and all non-Messi players even more than that). Portugal? Shellacked by Germany. Germany? Only beat the 'Muricans by one (Fuck yeah). Eventually, everyone just realized that Brazil was the right pick all along. (Note to future readers: disregard this entire metaphor if Brazil doesn't win the Cup. They almost blew it against Chile, after all)
Wiggins is Brazil. Before the season started, teams like the Sixers, the Bucks, and the Suns (how wrong we were about them) were all said to be "Riggin' for Wiggins." Then, as Parker, Randle, and Embiid emerged as potential top picks, writers and reporters came up with far less catchy phrases to describe the action of tanking for that player. We were deluding ourselves. This guy was going first overall.
The chatter is that he's not as NBA-ready as Parker or Embiid, but that he has a much higher ceiling than either one. However, if his vertical is any indication, he's pretty good at reaching ceilings.
In all seriousness, Wiggins is disgustingly good at basketball, and he's a far better fit for the Cavs than Parker. But does he fit better than Embiid? The answer is easy: no, probably not. If you're a team that's absorbing the contract of Andrew I-don't-even-like-basketball-that-much Bynum, you're desperate for an inside presence. That was the Cavs' biggest need going into this draft. And as long as they were willing to take chances like they did with Bynum, there is no reason not to go after Embiid. He will almost certainly miss next season, of course, but strength that he brings to the game is unmatched in this draft and likely the next one, and they missed their best chance to really diversify their team on both sides of the floor.
The best move for Cleveland, undoubtedly, would have been to trade with Philadelphia. Philly loved Wiggins more than most, and would trade down to the first pick for the right price. Considering the Sixers had the 10th overall pick as well as 5 in the second round, I'm confident the two teams could have figured it out. The Sixers would get the guy they wanted while the Cavs get their best fit and maybe a couple more assets that send them back into the playoffs within the next two years (as an eight seed to lose to LeBron's Heat, but it's the principle that counts).
But that didn't happen; the Cavs stayed put, and Embiid was not a first overall kind of pick. With all that considered, it seems like, for the first time in a while, Cleveland did something right.
2. MIL--SF Jabari Parker, Duke
A matchup made in heaven. Parker is the most mature and NBA-ready of any member of this draft class that will play in a game next year, something of great importance to a pretty awful team like the Bucks. Parker wanted to play close to his home in Chicago, and a team that plays in Milwaukee is desperate to find someone that actually wants to play there (and probably a little confused when they do find someone). Even in the depressing Eastern Conference, Parker doesn't make the Bucks instant contenders. But Milwaukee has found a franchise player, around whom they can build a solid team.
3. PHI--C Joel Embiid, Kansas
Poor Philly fans. One year after they drafted Nerlens Noel, a lauded big man with an injury that sidelined him for a season, the Sixers drafted a lauded big man with an injury that will sideline him for a season. I've never been a fan of a team that was in this extreme of a rebuilding stage, but I imagine Embiid's reaction is similar to that of most Philly fans:
(Apparently Embiid actually was excited upon being drafted, and his indifference/anger was an illusion caused by a tape delay. Believe what you need to believe.)
In a league where rim protection is becoming increasingly hard to find, Philadelphia has set themselves up to potentially have one of the scariest young frontcourts in recent memory...in two years. And we still don't know how Noel will play, let alone Embiid. If they both pan out, and they are monsters under the basket with rookie of the year by default MCW taking it up the court, they are a good team all of a sudden. But for now, their team is incomplete by design, and it's another year of losing on purpose.
4. ORL--PF Aaron Gordon, Arizona
I love Gordon, and I think his style of play will get him far in his NBA career. He's likely not a franchise player or consistent All-Star caliber, but he can defend with the best of them, even if he isn't, putting it nicely, the most prolific shooter. Unfortunately, this is one of many picks in the first round that doesn't schematically make sense. Orlando, before the draft started, traded away their most credible offensive threat in Aaron Afflalo. Looking at this roster, it's very unclear where the shooting is coming from. The Magic are now a very defense-oriented team with only Nikola Vucevic as a dependable option on the other end of the floor. Even in the East, I'm not the least bit scared of them. See you next year!
5. UTA--SG Dante Exum, Let's Go Outback Tonight
Exum is the Steve Kerr of this draft. He's proved himself competent in a capacity similar (sort of) to playing in the NBA, and he's done so to an extent that everyone wants him on their team. And yet, it remains to be seen how he'll do on the big stage. The major difference is the pressure placed on them. Kerr is already in a great situation, coaching a well-constructed team that made the playoffs last year in perhaps the best Western Conference in history. The pressure on him is to basically not to screw things up royally. Exum, on the other hand, is only 18 and expected to be "the guy" for the Jazz (sorry Trey Burke). He has unreal upside, and he already has the talent and size to make an impact for this team. But asking him to be the franchise is a lot of pressure on a young guy who hasn't even played in this country.
6. BOS--PG Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
Look, I really like Smart. I think he's a good player, and that he'll develop into a more-than-capable point and be a real asset to his team. And I wanted the pick to be an appropriate one so that we could all go crazy with the "smart" puns. But...I just can't. As the Celtics stand right now, this pick doesn't really make sense. Unless they're shopping Rondo, which they haven't shown much sign of, Boston will be playing with two guards that really just play the point. Apparently the Celtics think they can play them both, but I honestly just don't see it. Nor do I see a lot of teams that are willing to absorb the $11 million that Rondo is due in this last year of his extension. If I'm a Celtics fan, I'm left wishing they took a surer bet and a better fit than Smart, like any of the next three picks.
We'll look back on this draft in ten years and declare this pick a steal for the Lakers. Randle is not just a talented and physical big, he's a grown-ass man.
Fig. 1: A grown-ass man.
He's got just as much raw talent as Parker, and his aggression and motivation in the paint suggest a Wiggins-like upside. Los Angeles is a place where Randle can realize his upside, since he isn't under immense and immediate pressure to contribute and be the star; Kobe, Pau, and Nash are all similar candidates for that role following their 2013-2014 campaigns. If Randle can live up to his potential, he can easily be the face of the young incarnation of the Lakers (which, if you're a Laker fan, is far more palpable than Nick Young, aka Swaggy P, filling that role).
8. SAC--SG Nik Stauskas, Michigan
Like Gordon, this pick is a disheartening misuse of a great player that belongs elsewhere. He's an excellent shooter, perhaps the best in this draft, but that's not even close to the Kings' first need. They gave up 106.3 points per 100 possessions last season, so they really needed some defense. Plus, they drafted Ben McLemore out of Kansas last year to play where Stauskas will play. In fact, Vonleh (who went next to Charlotte) would have been an excellent fit. McLemore would be given another year to fill his role, while Vonleh's defensive prowess and generally good shooting improves greatly upon Jason Thompson's play at power forward. Elfrid Payton would also fill the need at point guard while bringing some defense to the team. The fact that they didn't suggests the Celtics might see Sacramento as a landing spot for Rondo if they're shedding his contract, but the Kings are already over the cap and will likely try to avoid paying a veteran $11 million for one year. On the other end of the pick is Stauskas himself, who will find his talents severely underutilized in an offense that doesn't move the ball enough to render him an effective player. Sigh.
9. CHA--PF Noah Vonleh, Indiana
So instead of a great fit in Stauskas, Charlotte just went for the best player available, and I think might have done the best thing for their team. Regardless of the fact that they play in the East, the fact that they made the playoffs means there must be something to this team, and Vonleh might be the missing piece. He's an excellent athlete and one of the better two-way players with some upside potential, and he does what Cody Zeller does far better than Cody Zeller. You play some combination of him, Al Jefferson, and Bismack Biyombo underneath the basket with Kemba Walker and a developing Kidd-Gilchrist on the court? You've got the beginnings of a formidable basketball team. One of the better early picks of the first round, for sure.
Similar to Gordon, Payton is an excellent defender with no jump shot to speak of. He and Oladipo are a very good young backcourt defensively, but the lack of scoring suggests the Magic in for a season with a lot of 90-85 losses.
11. CHI (from DEN)--SF Doug McDermott, Creighton
You'd be hard pressed to find a team that filled a gaping hole as well as Chicago did. The Bulls defense was positively suffocating, allowing just 97.8 points per 100 possessions, second-best in the league behind Indiana. But their offensive efficiency of 99.7 points per 100 possessions (on par with the Jordan-Crawford-Jeff-Green-Avery-Bradley-Kris-Humpries-Gerald-Wallace Celtics) meant every game was a grinding fight to win. McDermott might mean a slight decrease in defensive efficiency, but he's arguably the best scorer in the draft, and the only other candidate that's even close went to Sacramento. Scoring was exactly what the Bulls need, and Dougie Fresh is more than enough to keep the Bulls very competitive in 2014-2015.
12. PHI (from ORL)--PF Dario Saric, Croatia
A good fit, will add a new dimension to Philly's offense...in three years, when he's eligible to play in the NBA.
13. MIN--PG Zach LaVine, UCLA
Well, this just says it all. He's a very good athlete with better shooting ability than the two point guards who went before him (Smart and Payton), but it's Minnesota. He may not care enough, with or without Kevin Love, to be all he can be. On the other hand, he might play out of his mind to have a good resume to show when he hits free agency. Either way...that Vine still exists.
14. PHO--SF TJ Warren, NC State
The Suns were almost the best story of the year. Basically everyone said that they were not only tanking, but that they were built to tank. Then, they accidentally won some games and found themselves in contention for a playoff spot in the most competitive conference in history. And they were fun to watch, with guys like Dragic, Okafor, and Bledsoe spreading the floor. Seriously, is there anyone not from Memphis that wanted the Grizzlies in the playoffs over the Suns?
Alas, the 2013-2014 Suns will just be remembered as one of the best teams that didn't make the playoffs. In this draft, they needed guys who could make an immediate impact for the last push into the postseason. In Warren, they found one of their guys. Warren is a pretty good athlete with a very high basketball IQ, almost singlehandedly taking NC State to the Big Dance. Phoenix, however, wants him for his scoring from the small forward position, easily the biggest hole in their team. Outside of McDermott and Parker, both of whom would certainly be gone by this point, Warren is the best fit of this criterion. Excellent pick for the Suns: Warren has the skills to take them to the playoffs this year, and the feel for the game to keep his value far beyond 2014.
15. ATL--PF Adreian Payne, Michigan State
Payne was a huge asset to Sparty playing down low, bringing both strength and floor space to the position. Since he wanted to play for Tom Izzo as long as possible (and really, who wouldn't), he's one of the oldest players in the draft, so Atlanta is hoping he can contribute now. Realistically though, I'm not sure where they play him. The Hawks already like Antic and Millsap down low, and they're hoping Horford returns from his injury last season ready to play. Regardless, they see the weakness of the East and a good chance to return to the playoffs, and Payne's talent is a good value here to help them realize that goal.
16. DEN (from CHI)--C Jusuf Nurkic, Croatia
I know I was just singing Phoenix's praises, but, wow, is Denver multi-dimensional now. Nurkic is one of the best centers of the draft and a general monster. Rotating him underneath with Kenneth Faried and Javale McGee gives Denver real strength down low. Meanwhile, they just traded for Aaron Afflalo, a veteran scorer that really has no parallel on this Nuggets team.
17. BOS--SG James Young, Kentucky
I don't understand the Smart pick at 6, but for this one I at least get what the Celtics were thinking. It's still not a good pick.
Shooting guard was the biggest roster hole, since Boston was basically just flexing Avery Bradley, who's closer to a forward. But the best thing you can say about Young is his potential as a shooter, which is what I guess what the Celtics are going for. Two problems: (1) the Celts don't have enough of a supporting cast to let that potential grow, and (2) the shooting they're looking for in Young is basically already present in Rodney Hood, who was still on the board here.
And of course, we all know who's gonna get blamed when the Celtics lose 50 games again.
So long Brad, we hardly knew ya.
18. PHO--PG Tyler Ennis, Syracuse
Ennis is not only an above-average backup to Eric Bledsoe (something Phoenix really needed), but he's also the coolest motherfucker in this entire draft class.
19. DEN (from CHI)--SG Gary Harris, Michigan State
A small but talented two-way player that will be able to develop under Afflalo and a very solid cast of players on the Nuggets.
Can't we please just move a handful of these teams to the East?
20. TOR--SF Bruno Caboclo, Brazil
As if the Lint Rollers weren't already one of the most interesting teams in the league.
If you're like me, and you didn't even know who this guy was before the draft, here are the three key pointers:
1. He was the MVP of Basketball without Borders, which I'm very glad to say is a real thing.
2. He's being hailed as the "Brazilian Kevin Durant."
3. ESPN's Fran Fraschilla, expert on international basketball players, said Caboclo is "so raw that he's about three or four years away from playing in the league."
Beware the Raptors.
21. OKC--PF Mitch McGary, Michigan
Value-wise, this is a very good pick. McGary is another athletic shooter from Michigan, and may prove himself to have been worth a top-20 pick. Fit-wise, the pick is okay. This pick probably means Collison is out the door, so the Thunder will have some youth at that position. That said, McGary's rebounding talents could be better used by someone else, since the Thunder possessed the league-leading 52.2 rebounding rate last year, and the Thunder themselves are in need of a guard who can diversify the offense.
22. MEM--SG Jordan Adams, UCLA
I would've taken Rodney Hood at this position, simply because he's a far better athlete than Adams is. The pick still fills the biggest need on the Memphis roster at shooting guard, and Adams is a far better rebounder than Hood or Hairston, the other shooting guard that might have gone here--another good tool for a Grizzlies team that tied with Indiana for the third best rebounding rate in the league.
23. UTA--SG Rodney Hood, Duke
Hood is an excellent complement to any offense due to his ability to get open and shoot from both midrange and downtown. Unfortunately for Hood, the Jazz had the 25th-ranked offensive efficiency last season, meaning there's not much offense to complement. As much as Utah is relying on Exum, they're really going to lean on Hood to score for them, a task for which he may not be prepared. Then again, he played second fiddle beautifully last year alongside Jabari Parker at Duke.
It's an interesting pick, though likely not one that will have immediate payoffs.
24. MIA (from CHA)--PG Shabazz Napier, Connecticut
Mission: Keep LeBron in South Beach at All Costs is a go!
Seriously, the Heat probably did make the right call, regardless of James' personal preference. The Spurs' dismantling of Miami in the Finals exposed the team's lack of depth at basically every position, but the point was the most evident hole. Since Chalmers forgot how to play basketball, the Heat were basically left with two options: play Norris Cole, or don't play a point guard. For the Heat, who like to play very small, that's Sophie's choice. So they took probably the best and certainly the most driven point guard left on the board in Napier. It's just an added bonus that LeBron has one more reason to stay with Miami next season.
25. HOU--PF Clint Capela, France
An athletic player that's likely staying in France to develop for a year. They're already stacked at forward with Parsons and Howard often moving out of the center, so I'm not sure where they think he's going eventually. Doesn't matter; more cap room for Melo!
26. CHA (from MIA)--SG PJ Hairston, Texas Legends (D-League)
Another good pick for Charlotte. The BobcatsHorncatsBobnets Hornets really needed a guard who can score, since a banner night for Kemba Walker means about 40% shooting from the floor. Hairston is also a guy who (a) played in the D-League, which is arguably better preparation for the NBA than college, and (b) would almost certainly have been a lottery pick if he didn't decide that accepting a luxury rental car linked to a felon nicknamed "Fats" was a bulletproof idea (just one more chapter in the wildly entertaining story of UNC athletes and NCAA violations). Charlotte has really gotten a big infusion of young, promising talent, and are a good bet to rise through the ranks of the East over the next few years.
27. PHO--SG Bogdan Bogdanovic, Serbia
Whether he'll play in the NBA at all, let alone for the Suns in the near future is somewhat in question, so it's tough to say what kind of impact he'll have on this team. But I will say that, with his name, I was expecting far more impressive eyebrows.
28. LAC--SG CJ Wilcox, Washington
Wilcox is another older member of this class at 23, so the Clippers will be looking for him to bring his scoring ability to the table right away. Realistically, JJ Redick seems to be very capable in this exact role, so I'm not sure how much of the court Wilcox will see this season.
29. OKC--SF Josh Huestis, Stanford
As a small forward in OKC, Huestis is destined to ride the bench for long stretches of time. However, when he does play, he'll certainly help contribute on defense with his tough play and rebounding skills.
30. SA--PF Kyle Anderson, UCLA
A fairly good rebounder and shooter under the tutelage of Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw, and Gregg Popovich? The rich get richer. Love this pick.
The worst part of this draft is two of the teams that weren't in it. Portland had no picks, and New Orleans had only the 47th, which they used on Russ Smith. Both the Trail Blazers and the Pelicans are teams that feel like they are one or two seasons away from coming into their own, and their inability to fill their holes via the draft is a big loss.
